UCF vs. Florida Prediction, Preview, Odds

Week 6 of the college football season is here. UCF plays Florida and Heartland College Sports has your match prediction, preview and pre-match betting odds.

GAME INFO

Saturday, October 5th; 6:45 p.m. (CT); Ben Hill Griffin Stadium; Gainesville, FL

TV: SEC Network

Records: UCF 3-1 (Big 12: 1-1); Florida 2-2 (SEC: 1-1)

Last week: Colorado 48, UCF 21; Florida idle

Series story: Florida leads 2-1-0

Last meeting: UCF 29, Florida 17 (2021)

Fun fact: Outside of Florida State and Miami, UCF’s victory over Florida in 2021 marks the only time an opponent from Florida has defeated Florida since Stetson in 1938.

UCF vs. Florida betting lines and odds

Opening line: UCF (-2.5)

Over/Under: 61.5

Key players

UCF Knights

RB RJ Harvey

While last week’s result was certainly disappointing, UCF running back RJ Harvey continued his hot start to the season by turning 20 touches into 169 all-purpose yards and a score. Colorado became the first team this season to hold Harvey under the 100-yard mark on the ground, as he was scripted to complete just 16 carries for 77 yards.

LB Deshawn Pace

The UCF defense needs to get off the mat after letting Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs put up 48 points last week, but there are still some players on the roster who make this unit better than it was a year ago. Deshawn Pace, the Cincinnati transfer, is the main guy who fits that criteria. He leads the team with 22 tackles and two interceptions, including the only interception the Knights forced last week.

Florida Gators

QB Graham Mertz, DJ Lagway

Florida head coach Billy Napier is using a two-quarterback system after five-star freshman DJ Lagway proved how high his ceiling as a passer is compared to that of incumbent starter Graham Mertz. In the Gators’ final game, Mertz and Lagway combined to go 26 of 28 (92.8%, UF single-game record) for 277 yards, while Mertz accounted for four touchdowns (one rushing).

DB Trikweze Bridges

The Gators’ defense has been suspect through the first four games of Florida’s season, but one of the bright spots recently has been Oregon transfer Trikweze Bridges. In UF’s Week 4 win over Mississippi State, Trikweze recorded a career-high with a forced fumble and a pass breakup and recorded a team-leading 10 tackles. He is second on the team with 18 tackles this season entering this game.

KEY STORIES

UCF Knights

Can UCF respond properly? Last week’s 48-21 loss to Colorado was probably the most shocking result of any Big 12 game this season. Everything was geared towards UCF winning the game comfortably, but the Buffaloes had other plans. Four turnovers and 80-yard penalties were the Knights’ fatal mistakes, and if they want to have a chance of beating the Gators in The Swamp, they must avoid those two pitfalls.

Florida Gators

Can Florida’s run defense keep up? Entering this week, Florida boasts the 109th ranked rushing defense (188.8 ypg) in the country. While UCF’s poor performance against Colorado produced just 177 yards on the ground, the Knights are still No. 2 in the country with 326.0 yards per game. If Florida doesn’t find a way to contain this multi-headed rushing attack, the Knights will literally run away with this game.

PREDICTION: Florida 34, UCF 30

The UCF running game should be able to thrive against a Florida defense that has struggled to find its identity against good competition this year. That alone almost gives me enough confidence to put UCF on the road here.

Unfortunately, there are a few things going for Florida. First, the Gators are coming off a much-needed bye week and an impressive road win before that. Florida should be healthy and ready to play here with an expanded schedule. Second, this game is taking place in the swamp and Florida’s fan base is being lathered up for a night game against an in-state opponent. After all, UCF just got hit in the face but still enters the game as the betting favorite. If I were in Florida, this would annoy me to no end, especially since it’s in Gainesville.

With Billy Napier coaching all his life and Florida not being able to overlook this game, I think the Gators will find a way to win the game and stay undefeated at home against the Knights.