Tips, Predictions and Best Bets – Monday Night Football, NFL Week 4

The Miami Dolphins’ quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired, and with Tyler Huntley starting at center, we expect the Dolphins running back to take the lead.

De’Von Achane has been reliable in the field, and my Titans vs. Dolphins predictions explain why betting on the RB to surpass his rushing yards total is the way to go. Read all about it in my NFL picks for September 30th.

Titans vs Dolphins MNF Prediction

My best choice
Devon Achane Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-113 on FanDuel)

My analysis
Mike McDaniel’s offense is a mess as the Miami Dolphins have lost their two best quarterbacks and will have to lean on recently signed Tyler Huntley at center on Monday night.

Huntley has proven to be a capable Plan B (or, in this case, Plan C) during his career in Baltimore, but has had little time to learn the complexities of McDaniel’s playbook. This will force the Dolphins to keep it simple and anchor their offense in the run game.

Running back De’von Achane will have a prominent role in primetime against the Tennessee Titans, with a rushing yards total of 56.5 O/U – especially if fellow RB Raheem Mostert continues to be sidelined.

Mostert has missed the last two games with a pectoral injury and McDaniel didn’t seem confident he would be available in Week 4 despite the extra day off. That leaves the bulk of the carries to Achane, who logged 62% and 74% of snaps in the last two contests, respectively.

He ran 22 times for 96 yards against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2, but followed that up with 11 carries for just 30 yards in a lopsided loss in Seattle last Sunday, with the Fins quickly falling behind and completing just 32% of their offensive snaps.

Monday’s spread, which has fluctuated between Miami -2.5 and +1.5 all week, predicts a closer contest and a game script that allows McDaniel to rely on his running back early and often, thus reducing the pressure of one Taking backup QB.

Tennessee’s defense is better than advertised and has been particularly strong against the pass. However, when compared to the rushing game, the Titans rank middle of the pack in EPA per handoff and are 18th in both defensive success rate per run and yards per carry.

Player projections for Achane range from just under 50 yards to a high of 74 yards, with a higher ceiling if Mostert is out on Monday (currently questionable). My projection for the Fins running back is 64 rushing yards, but the QB situation and RB depth could easily increase that production.

Titans vs. Dolphins MNF, same game play

Devon Achane 50+ rushing yards

Devon Achane 3+ receptions

Dolphins team under 19.5 points overall

Achane will be the anchor on offense and his projections are over 70 rushing yards.

Achane is also an important part of the passing game and will be a checkdown option for a QB3 under center.

McDaniel will keep it simple in one of the slower offenses in the country. All of these pre-snap moves and short gains will leave the Fins with less than 20 points against a stout Titans defense.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Titans vs Dolphins odds

Titans vs Dolphins live odds

Titans vs. Dolphins opening odds

• Spread: Tennessee +1.5 (-120) | Miami -1.5 (-102)
• Money line: Tennessee -104 | Miami-112
• Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-110) | Under 38.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Titans vs. Dolphins spread and over/under analysis

• The Dolphins were already without QB1 Tua Tagovailoa and QB2 Skylar Thompson suffered a rib injury in Week 3. That left the QB situation uncertain for Monday’s game when Week 4 odds opened. The Dolphins opened with a 1.5-point lead at home, but the Titans’ money turned, resulting in Tennessee -1.
• Later in the week, Miami made the decision to start Tyler Huntley at quarterback, pushing that spread back over the fence and sitting at Dolphins -2.5 as of Sunday afternoon. Covers consensus shows that 52% of picks support the home team.
• The over/under total was 40 points and has dropped to just 36.5 points – the lowest total on the odds board for Week 4.
• The weather in Miami will be hot and humid Monday night, with humidity at 76% and a “feel like” temperature of 104 degrees.

Things to know about the Titans vs. Dolphins betting trends

So far this season, over/under totals of less than 40 points (39.5 or less) have resulted in a 2-5 O/U record entering Week 4 on Sunday. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Dolphins.

Information about the Titans vs. Dolphins game

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Weather Titans vs. Dolphins

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