Voter registrations are surging in swing states, throwing the 2024 race into disarray

(This story has been updated to note that Arizona’s electorate grew by nearly 125,000 voters from August 2020 to the end of July 2024.)

WASHINGTON — The recent surge in voter registrations is throwing the already contentious 2024 presidential race into turmoil. Hundreds of thousands of new voters have now registered to cast their votes and help determine who will reside in the White House for the next four years.

In most of the seven key battleground states where Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are particularly close in the polls, the current number of registered voters is lower compared to the 2020 presidential race, which was marked by the global COVID-19 pandemic coincided, increased.

In North Carolina, for example, nearly half a million more people are registered in 2024 than in 2020, when Trump won the Tar Heel state over Joe Biden by around 74,000 votes.

Over in Michigan, the total number of registered voters has increased by more than 350,000 since October 2020. Biden’s margin of victory this year over Trump in the battleground Midwestern state: just over 150,000 votes.

Similar voter registration trends are also seen in Arizona, where Biden defeated Trump by around 10,500 votes in 2020, and in Nevada, where the current Democratic president defeated his predecessor by nearly 33,600 votes. Between August 2020 and the end of July this year, Arizona’s electorate grew by nearly 125,000 voters. In Nevada — the least populous of this year’s swing states — more than 260,000 additional registered voters have signed up compared to this time four years ago.

There is an important caveat to this data: Registered voters are not the same as actual voters, which is why the Trump and Harris campaigns are focusing in November on increasing turnout in their core constituencies while finding potential new constituencies of support.

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There are various reasons for the increase in the number of names added to the electoral rolls. For one thing, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, since the last midterm election cycle in 2022, more than 8 million people in the United States have become newly eligible to vote upon reaching their 18th birthday. Additionally, election experts told USA TODAY that several specific recent events — including Biden’s decision to step aside in place of Harris and a special endorsement from high-profile celebrities — could be motivating factors for many of the new registrations.

Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, said voter registrations reliably increase each campaign season as Election Day approaches, especially at events such as a national political convention.

“What’s different this year,” he said, “is that we’re having a different campaign event.”

Important moments lead to great interest in voting

A tumultuous summer in politics culminated in Biden’s decision in late July to drop out of the presidential campaign and throw his weight behind Harris, his incumbent vice president.

Harris’ campaign kickoff sparked a flood of donations, renewed enthusiasm among liberal voters and sparked what appeared to be a surge in voter registrations. According to the nonpartisan platform Vote.org, nearly 39,000 people registered to vote in the 48 hours after Harris took office. Less than a week later, the number exceeded 100,000.

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Then came pop icon Taylor Swift’s support for Harris via Instagram. Her post, which received more than 11 million likes and followed immediately after Harris’ debate with Trump on September 10, included a custom URL to voting resources and a call for fans to register.

Vote.gov received 405,999 visitors in the 24 hours following Swift’s announcement, according to a spokesperson for the General Services Administration. In comparison, the site had about 30,000 daily visitors the week before.

It was unclear how many of those visitors successfully registered. Vote.gov itself is not a registration site, but rather directs users to websites with state-specific information.

Swing states could see more voters in 2024

During National Voter Registration Day on September 17, Vote.org reported the registration of more than 150,000 new voters, a record for the organization during the annual civic holiday.

Sixteen percent of those came from the seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, North Carolina experienced one of the largest increases in the total number of registered voters between now and this time four years ago, with more than 500,000 additional voters. In 2020, Trump narrowly won the Tar Heel State’s 15 Electoral College votes.

In Pennsylvania, the current number of registered voters is about 150,000 fewer than it was on Election Day in 2020, when Biden won the commonwealth by about 80,500 votes. But by the end of September, there were already about 60,000 more voters in the state than in the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats won critical and hard-fought races for governor and U.S. Senate.

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The handful of battleground states emerged as the ones to watch as they feature neck-and-neck races between Republicans and Democrats, putting both in a position to swing for either Trump or Harris. The Trump campaign recently told Fox News that it has devoted “maximum attention and resources” to increasing Republican registrations in those states.

“And in states where the winner is decided solely by percentage points, that could make all the difference,” said Tim Murtaugh, senior adviser to the Trump campaign.

The efforts of the Trump campaign and GOP allies appear to be paying off: In all four swing states where voters register by party, Republicans have increased their voter share since 2020. In Arizona, Republicans have increased their lead over Democrats, with nearly 260,000 more red registered voters than blue. And in North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, Republicans have significantly reduced the Democrats’ lead.

“Shot in the arm” for the Democrats

In general, voter growth is not limited to battlegrounds.

According to Tom Bonier, Democratic strategist and CEO of political data provider TargetSmart, nationally the number of voters who registered in late July after Harris took office was three times higher than at the same time four years ago.

Many of the new registrants were younger voters and particularly younger women and younger women of color, he said.

His best comparison: the summer of 2022, when the US Supreme Court heard the Roe v. Wade repealed, which legalized abortion nationwide.

“At the time we saw it and thought, ‘Wow, you’ll never see anything like that again. We’ve never seen anything like this,'” Bonier said.

However, Bonier said the numbers from this summer exceeded the numbers back then.

The potential influx of new voters from these particular demographic groups could be a boon for Democrats, who tend to do well among voters under 35 and were widely overtaken by Republicans in registrations before the Biden-Harris vote flip. McDonald said.

“The Democrats had to get this chance,” he said. “Harris’ post provided an opportunity for people to get excited and start registering.”

Owen Wallace, 18, is among more than 3.5 million registered voters in Wisconsin, an increase of about 27,000 since 2020, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission as of earlier this month.

Wallace, a data science freshman at the University of Utah, registered to vote for the first time in July. He said he was inspired by a high school government course, along with attending the “America in One Room: The Youth Vote” event that brought hundreds of first-time voters together for a weekend in Washington, D.C., this summer.

Wallace said he plans to vote by mail in his home state of Wisconsin and cast his vote for Harris.

While the freshman decided to register shortly before Biden’s surprise departure, Wallace said the decision confirmed his determination to vote this fall.

“It was a revival of hope, so to speak,” he said.

Voter turnout remains a question and concern

However, for many, registration does not automatically mean participation.

Of the nearly 7 million Georgia residents who registered to vote in 2022, about 4 million actually voted.

“You have no choice”: Trump is urging voters who don’t like him to consider the alternative

However, the numbers improve in presidential years.

Of the more than 8 million Michigan residents who registered to vote in 2020, about 5.5 million voted. In Pennsylvania this year, about 9 million people were registered and nearly 7 million voted.

“The election is won by those who run, and that’s where the ground game comes in,” the Trump campaign’s Murtaugh told Fox News.

McDonald said he expects poll numbers this November to also reflect growing engagement and enthusiasm.

“People who register by Election Day do so with the intention of voting,” McDonald said.

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Voter registrations are surging in swing states, throwing the 2024 race into disarray

Important moments lead to great interest in voting

Swing states could see more voters in 2024

“Shot in the arm” for the Democrats

Voter turnout remains a question and concern

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Voter registrations are surging in swing states, throwing the 2024 race into disarray

Important moments lead to great interest in voting

Swing states could see more voters in 2024

“Shot in the arm” for the Democrats

Voter turnout remains a question and concern

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