Harris vs. Trump: Who is leading in the presidential polls?

In less than 36 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will face Donald Trump when Americans cast their ballots in the 2024 election.

Polls show the economy remains the top issue in this election, while Republicans and Democrats are divided over abortion and immigration.

The candidates are gearing up for an intense final stretch of the campaign, and the needle is poised to swing one way or the other. How will Harris and Trump fare in November?

Harris has a 2.8-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls tracked by Thirty-five. On average, Harris has been slightly ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks.

A new poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies of 2,500 U.S. adults through September 26 finds Harris at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent.

The most important issue influencing people’s choices in this election continues to be the economy, regardless of political affiliation.

The same poll shows that abortion is the second most important issue for 37 percent of voters, followed by immigration at 34 percent.

For Trump voters, however, these priorities are reversed.

More than half (57 percent) of Trump voters view immigration as a top issue, amid tensions over border security and recently debunked claims by Trump and Republicans about Haitian migrants.

Interestingly, health care and abortion are the second most important issues for Trump voters, at 23 percent each.

Although Trump has pushed for an overhaul of Obamacare, with attempts during his presidency failing, he failed to present an alternative health care policy at the most recent presidential debate.

Meanwhile, abortion is top of mind for Harris voters (55 percent); Harris himself criticized abortion bans after the overturn of Roe v. Calf.

Health care is also a top priority for Harris voters (40 percent), followed by housing (23 percent).

Battleground states

Current polls from the swing states of Bloomberg/Morning Consult has Harris ahead by an average of +3 points, ranging from neck-and-neck with Trump to a lead of +7 points.

The poll of more than 6,000 registered voters in swing states was conducted September 19-25, with margins of error in each state ranging from 1 percent to 4 percent.

In Pennsylvania, where the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump took place, Harris has seen her lead increase from +4 points to +5 points since August.

The state had previously turned to Trump when President Joe Biden was on the Democratic ticket.

In Nevada, Harris has the largest 7-point lead over Trump with 52 percent to 45 percent of the vote.

In Georgia, the two candidates are tied at 49 percent each, while Harris’ 5-point lead in Wisconsin has shrunk to 3 points over Trump.

Harris also has a 3-point lead in Michigan and Arizona and a 2-point lead in North Carolina.

While the economy remains the top issue for swing state voters, the perceived “skills gap” is narrowing: 45 percent of swing state voters think Harris can handle the economy better, just behind Trump at 49 Percent.

It’s worth noting that this is separate New York Times Polls earlier this month showed Trump with a lead in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. This variation indicates that the swing states can be changed before November.

Independents

A separate national Morning Consult poll of 11,000 likely voters across the country from Sept. 20-22 shows Harris with a 5-point lead overall.

According to the tracker poll, Harris leads among elusive independent voters – +4 points overall – with 46 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.

However, this lead is unchanged from the same poll in mid-August, when Harris had 42 percent of the independent vote and Trump had 38 percent (a 4-point lead).

What has changed is that the number of independent voters who are undecided or voting for a third candidate has fallen from a fifth (20 percent) to a tenth (12 percent).

It is important to note that these undecided voters are independents who are likely to vote. This means that once they make their choice, the odds are likely to tip in favor of one of the candidates.

Interestingly, 6 percent of independents still plan to vote for a third-party candidate even after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Trump.

With Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver still in play, it remains to be seen how many independent votes they will attract on Election Day.

Who will vote?

A YouGov/economist In the poll, Harris is at 47 percent and Trump is at 44 percent, with a three-point lead among registered voters. The poll shows Harris with a large 25-point lead among young voters aged 29 and younger.

However, according to the same survey, younger generations are also the least likely to vote: 13 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed say they “maybe” will vote, while 3 percent will not vote or are still unsure.

That’s 16 percent undecided or not voting, more than any other age group and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65 percent of the 18 to 29 year olds surveyed said they would definitely vote in November.

This compares to 77 percent of those aged 30 to 44, 85 percent of those aged 45 to 64 and 94 percent of those aged 65+.

Although the numbers may seem bleak and reflect a degree of reluctance among younger voters, the overall picture is significantly more engaged than in 2020.

The same YouGov/economist A poll at this point in the 2020 presidential election found that nearly a third of young people (27 percent) had not decided to vote in November, with 10 percent voting “maybe” and 17 percent “definitely/probably” not voting.

Arizona: Key Issues

In Arizona — a historically Republican state that has 11 electoral votes and went for Biden in 2020 — polls have shown mixed results for Harris and Trump.

The Trump campaign made frequent stops in the state over the summer.

In a state that borders Mexico, about one in five (19 percent) of Arizona voters say immigration is the most important issue impacting their vote, according to the same poll.

This is second only to the economy, which is the biggest issue affecting voters across the state and the country.

The majority (51 percent) of Arizona voters believe Trump is better equipped to handle the most important issues, which has changed since August, when Harris was slightly more trusted.

This suggests that despite general enthusiasm for Harris’ debate performance, Arizona voters may prefer Trump and his approach to key issues. As a generally Republican state, this is not surprising.

Demographics

A separate survey by The New York Times and Siena College last week had Trump and Harris in a statewide standoff, each with 47 percent of the vote among likely voters.

This is a slight departure from the same poll in early September, which surprisingly had Trump +2 points ahead of Harris.

In the new poll, conducted after the debate and including 2,437 likely voters, 67 percent of respondents said Harris did well in the debate, compared to 40 percent who thought the same about Trump.

Harris maintains a strong lead among women (12 points), while Trump has a 14-point lead among men.

Notably, Harris improved her share of the vote among those under 34 after the debate, rising 7 percent to 58 percent of the vote and a 21-point lead over Trump.

Meanwhile, their lead in the 30-44 age group has shrunk, with Trump now just 4 points behind; However, Trump’s lead in the 45 to 64 age group has also fallen to just 2 points.

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Among college-educated white voters, the poll showed a 12-point preference for Harris in early September. After the debate, this group saw the largest increase, with a 25-point lead for Harris with 61 percent of the vote.

Interestingly, a poll before the debate by The New York Times showed that nearly a third of voters (28 percent) said they needed to know more about Harris, compared to 9 percent who said the same about Trump.

But the debate was helpful for Harris in that regard, as half of voters (50 percent) feel they “learned a lot about her” during the debate, and only a third say the same about Trump The New York Times Opinion poll.

Favorability

The Vice President has suffered from overall negative popularity ratings since July 2021, which is not unusual for people who hold public office.

But on September 18, for the first time in more than three years, Harris’s positive and negative popularity ratings were equal, according to an average of all popularity polls compiled by Thirty-five.

The debate may have been Harris’ chance to change her public perception and ultimately promote a more positive opinion of herself and her campaign.

The same cannot be said for Trump, whose net favorability is negative at -9.9 and has been negative since the last election. JD Vance also entered the race with a negative rating, which grew over time and now averages -10.7 percent.

Democratic candidate Tim Walz is the only candidate who entered the race with a positive rating and has maintained it, with an average approval rating of +3.9 Thirty-five.

However, Biden has also had to accept negative reviews since September 2021; and has the lowest favorability on average at -14.6 percent.

CNN’s snap poll after the first Trump-Harris debate shows Harris managed to turn the tide with some voters.

As a result of the debate, more voters now believe that Harris understands the problems of people like them better (44 percent) than Trump (40 percent). Before the debate, the opposite was true.