Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman clash in the 2024 presidential election

Forecaster Nate Silver wonders whether the key to historian Allan Lichtman’s victory in the 2024 presidential election really lies in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.

The feud between historian Allan Lichtman and forecaster Nate Silver is heating up on social media as Election Day approaches.

Lichtman, an American university professor who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, predicted earlier this month that candidate Kamala Harris-Tim Walz would win the White House.

Since then, Silver, a political pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight, has released data showing that Vice President Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in the national polling average by nearly three points – 48.9% to 46% – Trump and the vice presidential nominee JD Vance, however, has a 56.2% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris-Walz (43.5%).

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On Friday, Silver questioned Lichtman’s ability to read his own 13 keys that he used to call presidential elections. “At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, are clearly pro-Trump. Sorry bro, but that’s what the keys say. Unless you admit they’re completely random?” Silver posted on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter.

Lichtman then responded on X that Silver “claims to have used my keys to predict a Trump victory.

Lichtman continued: “He is not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic qualifications. He was wrong when he said I couldn’t predict Obama’s re-election (in 2010) early on. He will be wrong again if he tries to analyze the keys.

Lichtman reiterated his doubts about Silver’s ability to “turn the keys” in a video on TikTok Friday night.

The back and forth continued as Silver put himself out there and made testable predictions on Saturday.

Most of the online audience seemed to enjoy the argument.

“If you don’t know what they’re talking about, this whole exchange looks like an argument between two wizards,” commented Capitol Forum reporter Paul McLeod.

Back in July, after President Joe Biden’s first post-debate television interview, Silver suggested that Biden should step down as a presidential candidate and let Vice President Kamala Harris run. “The most generous way to put it is that he doesn’t seem to be in charge,” Silver posted on X.

Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight in 2008, launched his website at The New York Times in 2010 and at ESPN and ABC News in 2013.

After ABC News acquired the company and Silver left the company in 2023 due to layoffs at The Walt Disney Company, he started the newsletter and website Silver Bulletin Substack.

In July 2024, Silver became an advisor at Polymarket, a prediction market where you can bet on elections and other world events.

Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished history professor at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

More than two decades ago, he and the late seismologist and mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok developed a way to predict presidential elections using Keilis-Borok’s work detecting earthquake patterns.

“We reimagined the presidential election with earthquakes in mind,” Lichtman told USA TODAY in May 2024. When there is stability, “the party that holds the White House keeps the White House,” he said. If not, “the party is expelled.”

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Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman clash in the 2024 presidential election

Forecaster Nate Silver wonders whether the key to historian Allan Lichtman’s victory in the 2024 presidential election really lies in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.

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Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman clash in the 2024 presidential election

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