Mets vs. Braves prediction, odds and player props today: Game 1

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Who will win Mets vs. Braves Game 1?

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET, Truist Park

Braves wins (-154) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -154 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 60.63%

The Braves likely have Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale suspended for Game 2 of tonight’s doubleheader if they lose Game 1. But the confidence they’re showing rookie Spencer Hülsenbach by starting him in the first game says everything you need to know about his abilities, while also allowing them to potentially save Sale for tomorrow’s Game 1 of the postseason.

Schlafenbach faced the Mets at home just six days ago. He allowed one earned run on three hits in seven brilliant innings. Schlafenbach posted a 28% CSW rate in this start with a fastball-heavy arsenal (he threw his fastball 44% of the time).

The Mets have won each of Tylor Megill’s last five starts, but his divisions against elite teams are concerning. New York is 2-5 in Megill’s seven games against playoff teams (Atlanta is included) this season, and he posted a 3.47 ERA in that time.

He also allowed multiple walks six times in those games, and a loss to the Braves on July 27 was one of four games in which he allowed four or more earned runs this season.

Atlanta’s implied probability of winning this game is 62.26% based on bet365’s -165 odds. Braves backers will find the best return on FanDuel, where a $10 winning bet would pay out $16.49.

Mets vs. Braves player props

Prediction: Spencer Hügelbach under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 44.44%

Schlafenbach’s two starts against the Mets were completely opposite in terms of strikeouts. He recorded a season-high 12 strikeouts against their NL East rival on July 27, but struck out just four Mets in his final game. That was one of six starts this season in which he recorded four or fewer strikeouts.

Schlafenbach made seven starts from late July to late August, recording more than seven strikeouts in each start. However, he has had five or fewer strikeouts in all five starts in September, and with the Braves’ coaching staff treating this like a playoff game, the team will likely turn to the bullpen earlier than usual.

A winning bet of $10 would return a winnings of $12.50 via our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS.

Prediction: Marcell Ozuna over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +140 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 41.67%

Ozuna is on pace to hit over .300 and hit .833 or better for the third straight month. And he had outstanding success against Megill in his career, going 6-for-12 with two home runs.

Ozuna has been on fire down the stretch, slashing .310/.431/.524 over the last 15 days. With those numbers (which include two home runs), he should have a lot more than four RBIs over that period, so I expect a positive regression in the RBI department against a pitcher who is on pace to have a hard-hit rate of 42% or better allowed a third time in four seasons.

BetMGM offers odds of +135 for the same bet. So the best value is at FanDuel, where a winning bet of $10 would pay out $24 (including the bet).

Mets vs. Braves odds and match information

• When: Monday, September 30th
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia.
• How to watch: ESPN2
• Favorite: Braves (-155 via BetMGM)

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