Giving away money: Alabama-Vanderbilt opening odds and early spread forecast

The surprising Vanderbilt Commodores could hardly hope for a better chance at Alabama.

The ‘Dores defense has improved in every way over the last two seasons under Clark Lea. The lines play much better. They’ve reduced their giveaways – and haven’t lost the +/- in any games this season. The redesigned passing attack has proven to be very efficient. Vandy is just saying goodbye. They’re at home…and Alabama will be drained from the emotional rollercoaster that was another instant classic against the Dawgs.

But is it all enough for the 2-2 upstarts the Commodores? Can they cause excitement? If that doesn’t work, can the “Dores” cover?

Well, Color Vegas unimpressed. According to FanDuel, Vandy opens with +24.5 points Outsider in his own field.

All odds are provided by FanDuelwho generously sponsored this post today. Kudos to Fan Duel for this. Follow the link below for current odds and spreads:

What does the data say and why?

After evaluating the data this evening, running three models and creating a composite, this is actually pretty close to the predicted margin. Vanderbilt will have a very difficult time generating much locally. And although ‘Bama was fired up for chunk plays by UGA in the second half on Saturday, generating them through the air hasn’t been VU’s greatest strength this season.

The Dores have also been remarkably poor on 3rd down defense – and Alabama is second in the SEC in third down conversions, so Vandy will have a hard time getting the Tide off the field – that’s assuming Alabama does at all makes it to third down. Vanderbilt ranks near the bottom of the SEC in red zone conversions and third-down conversions allowed and has given up the most plays over 50 yards of any conference participant.

And despite his vast improvement, the secondary is still the weakest link on this VU force. You don’t want to face an Alabama team whose secondary allows a 63% completion rate and whose defense’s leading pass defender is an edge rusher – the Dores simply can’t make plays with the ball in the air.

Finally, the Commodores have the worst home field advantage in the SEC, just +1.87 overall.

In other words, it’s a bad matchup. And if Alabama stays focused, cleans up a few messes that UGA uncovered, and plays its “average” game, the Tide should win this by four touchdowns…not that we know what an “average” game looks like for this team.

Data says: Alabama -26.99, 42-13 as the Tide moves to 6-0 and 6-0 ATS. But avoid the totals (55.5)

Would you like more of this? I look at the data for (almost) every single game, every single week on my companion site: (Almost) giving away money. Check it out and succeed.

Only five dollars a month, but with inflation that works out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.