Arsenal vs. PSG prediction: Champions League game preview

Arsenal will be helped by the Opta supercomputer to beat Paris Saint-Germain, but can they live up to those expectations in this Champions League game? Take a look ahead with our Arsenal vs PSG prediction and preview.

Arsenal vs PSG stats: Key takeaways

• Arsenal won 46.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations for this game.
• Paris Saint-Germain has failed to score on any of its last 71 shots in the Champions League and scored a late own goal in its last win over Girona.
• PSG have played more UEFA competition games against Arsenal (four) without a win than any other team.

Arsenal aim to start their UEFA Champions League campaign in a blockbuster clash against Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday after a draw on matchday one.

Mikel Arteta’s side were disappointing in their last 0-0 draw with Atalanta in the competition, posting a disappointing expected goals figure of 0.78 from just six shots in Bergamo. They also had to rely on the heroics of goalkeeper David Raya to snatch just one point.

Raya saved a penalty from Mateo Retegui and then made a second brilliant stop to parry the rebound. Raya became only the fourth Arsenal goalkeeper to save a penalty in the competition.

The Gunners’ nine touches of the ball in the opposition penalty area in this game were the fewest in a Champions League game since March 2014 (also nine against Bayern Munich). Their six attempts were also the fewest in a Champions League away game in 10 years, when they only managed five at Borussia Dortmund in September 2014.

However, they are back at home this week and face one of their toughest tasks in the 2024-25 league phase.

PSG, along with Inter, were one of the two Pot 1 teams Arsenal faced and they will promise to make life difficult for the Gunners at the Emirates Stadium.

Although Luis Enrique’s team only managed to win 1-0 against tournament debutants Girona on the first matchday, it was a completely one-sided affair. PSG had 64% possession and managed 26 shots, Girona had three; The only game on Matchday 1 with a major shooting disparity between the two teams was Bayern Munich’s 9-2 win over Dinamo Zagreb (29-4).

Nevertheless, PSG was only able to secure a victory. A 90th-minute own goal from Girona goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga proved crucial as the Argentine was unable to stop Nuno Mendes’ deflected cross as it snaked through him and into the net.

That was the youngest game-winning own goal in Champions League history and meant PSG have taken 71 shots since the last goal scored by one of their players in the competition, with Kylian Mbappé against Barcelona in April becoming the last player to score for the Parisians in the UCL met.

However, PSG will have been happy to have simply gotten off to a winning start, as the Opta supercomputer made the draw reckoning they had the toughest schedule of any team in the league phase of the Champions League this season; Their opponents have an average rating of 92.4 in the Opta Power rankings and they still have to face Barcelona, ​​Atlético Madrid and Manchester City after the Arsenal clash.

But back to the topic of barren periods in front of goal: if Arsenal fail to score on Tuesday, it would be the first time they have gone through three European Cup/Champions League games without scoring.

If Arsenal sort themselves out on this front, it’s likely that Bukayo Saka will have something to do with it. He was directly involved in seven goals in five Champions League home games (four goals, three assists), which is the highest rate of any male Gunners player in the first five home games of the competition.

Although he wasn’t officially credited with the assist, it was Saka’s corner that led directly to Leandro Trossard’s second goal (and Arsenal’s third) in a 4-2 win over Leicester City. Arsenal have long been particularly dangerous from set pieces, and a large part of that threat is thanks to Saka’s (and Declan Rice’s) consistent ability to deliver exceptional crosses.

This win over Leicester would have been very welcome for Mikel Arteta, whose side arguably underperformed against Atalanta and had a valuable away win against Manchester City evaporated in the last minute.

PSG remain unbeaten in six games in Ligue 1 and have won five of them. Bradley Barcola continued his scoring streak for the Parisians at the weekend, helping the Ligue 1 leaders to a 3-1 win over Rennes with his brace. Barcola has scored six goals in six games so far, two more than he scored in all of last season, and the 22-year-old will be a threat for Arsenal on Tuesday.

Arsenal vs PSG head-to-head

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four meetings with PSG in European competition (W1 D3). In fact, the French team have played more games without a win against the Gunners (4) than against any other opponent in Europe.

Additionally, PSG have lost each of their last three away games against English teams in the UEFA Champions League, twice against Manchester City last season (both in 2021) and once against Newcastle. Their 4-1 defeat at St James’ Park in the 2023/24 season was their heaviest away defeat against an English opponent in European competition.

Arsenal’s last home game against a French side in the Champions League was a 6-0 win over Lens in last season’s group stage. The Gunners were 4-0 up after 27 minutes in that game, while it remains the biggest win by an English team against a French opponent in Europe.

Arteta will be the sixth Spanish coach Luis Enrique faces in the UEFA Champions League. The PSG coach has won five of his last six such games (L1) and has beaten each of the five Spaniards he faced in the previous competition at least once (Pep Guardiola, Unai Emery, Xavi, Imanol Alguacil and Míchel).

Arsenal vs PSG prediction

The Opta supercomputer considers Arsenal to be pretty clear favorites for this game, winning 46.1% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Nonetheless, PSG still have at least a point in over half of the sims, with a win probability of 27.3% and 26.6% ending in a draw.

In our latest season predictions for the competition, Arsenal are fourth favorites, lifting the trophy in 6.7% of simulations. PSG wins its first Champions League title with 4.4%, making it the ninth favorite.

Predicted Arsenal vs PSG lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns over 13,000 domestic football teams a skill score on a scale between zero and 100, with zero being the worst team in the world and 100 being the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power rankings for both sides.

Arsenal vs PSG squad

arsenal: David Raya, Neto, Tommy Setford, William Saliba, Kieran Tierney, Ben White, Gabriel, Jurriën Timber, Jakub Kiwior, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori, Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Leandro Trossard, Jorginho, Mikel Merino, Kai Havertz, Raheem Sterling, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli.

Head coach: Mikel Arteta

PSG: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matvey Safonov, Arnau Tenas, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Lucas Beraldo, Milan Skriniar, Yoram Zague, Willian Pacho, Fabián Ruiz, Désiré Doué, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Senny Mayulu, Warren Zïre-Emery, João Neves, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marcos Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola, Ibrahim Mbaye.

Head coach: Luis Enrique

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