Tips, Predictions and Best Bets – NFL Week 4

In Week 4 there will be an AFC duel between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.

Both teams’ offenses have been abysmal over the last three weeks, so my Browns vs. Raiders predictions leave both units out of my NFL picks for September 29, 2024.

Browns vs Raiders prediction

My best choice
Under 36.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Deshaun Watson continues to disappoint as a member of the Cleveland Browns. The former Pro Bowl quarterback is the 23rd best QB in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus and entered Sunday’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders with a passing grade of 59.9.

It’s not as if the matchups were unfavorable for Watson, either, as the Jaguars and Giants gave him fits over the last two weeks. In theory, a 1-2 Las Vegas Raiders team wouldn’t bother him too much, but they still rank 17th in success rate per dropback allowed after finishing 11th last season.

The majority of the staff has returned to Las Vegas, and if things continue to stay that way in the secondary, a talented group of pass rushers should get back into the swing of things against one of football’s most offensive lines.

The fact is, Gardner Minshew hasn’t been much better – and with a few more bad games, he could lose his starting spot. Cleveland’s pass rush has been excellent, ranking 12th in success rate per dropback allowed.

With an even weaker offense that has switched to two rookies due to injuries and Dylan Parham’s struggles, things are likely to remain bleak for the Raiders’ offense.

Browns vs. Raiders, same game play

Under 36

Deshaun Watson Over 21.5 rushing yards

Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 interceptions

Since we’re betting on a miserable game with little offense, we need to get creative with our parlay for the same game. It starts with Watson, whose arm has let him down with a 57.76% success rate through three games – including averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt.

With Las Vegas sporting a defensive line featuring Maxx Crosby and the Browns’ O-line continuing to struggle, Watson will step out of the pocket and step up. He only rushed about five times per game, gaining 6.07 yards per attempt and exceeding that number twice.

Meanwhile, Cleveland ranked in the top 10 for interceptions per game last season and has already caught two passes this year. Minshew has thrown exactly one interception in each of his three starts and is expected to have another on Sunday.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Browns vs Raiders odds

Browns vs Raiders live odds

Browns vs. Raiders opening odds

• Spread: Cleveland -1.5 | Las Vegas +1.5
• Money line: Cleveland -115 | Las Vegas -105
• Over/Under: Over 39.5 | Under 39.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Browns vs. Raiders distribution and over/under analysis

• After the bet opened at -115 on the money line, bettors quickly corrected the market by painting the Raiders as underdogs. They would shoot back to around -125 before returning the other way and settling at +115.
• While 54% of DraftKings’ moneyline bets are on the Browns, they accounted for 77% of the handle.
• The total has fallen steadily from the opening figure of 39.5, falling quickly to 38.5 in the first few hours of the betting window before reaching 36.5 on Saturday morning.
• The Over took 56% of the tickets but only 30% of the cash.

Things to know about the “Browns vs. Raiders” betting trend.

Las Vegas has scored first in five of its last seven games (+4.90 units / 62% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Raiders.

Information about the Browns vs. Raiders game

The Browns vs. Raiders’ recent injuries

Weather Browns vs. Raiders

Monitor game conditions with our live NFL weather information and learn how the weather affects NFL betting.

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