Sun vs. Lynx prediction, odds and key players to watch in WNBA Semifinals Game 1

The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun both made it through the first round of the playoffs, although the Sun had some nervous moments in game two against the Indiana Fever before finally wrapping up the series.

Now these teams will meet in the semifinals, although oddsmakers have them trailing the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces (the other semifinalist) to win it all this season.

These two teams are both elite defensemen (No. 1 and No. 2 in the league), which should make for an exciting series.

Can the Sun get off to a good start as away underdogs in Game 1?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, the key players to watch, and my prediction for Sunday night’s game.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Money line

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Sun injury report

Lynx injury report

Connecticut Sun

Marina Mabrey: The X-factor for the Sun: Mabrey could be forced into the starting lineup again on Sunday if Harris (questionably) can’t go. In the first round against the Indiana Fever, Mabrey had 27 and 17 points while shooting 8 of 22 from distance. She played almost the entire game (39:10) in Game 2 against Indiana without Harris missing.

Minnesota lynx

Napheesa Collier: The best player of the postseason so far has been Collier, who dropped 38 and 42 points, respectively, in her two games against the Phoenix Mercury. Collier, an MVP candidate this season, had 25 points against the Sun the last time these teams met and 31 in an overtime win in early 2024.

There could be a rock fight at the Target Center on Sunday evening.

The Suns (No. 1 in defensive rating, dead last in pace) face the Lynx (No. 2 in defensive rating, No. 10 in pace) in a matchup that has been a dream for underbettors this season.

In three regular-season meetings, the Sun and Lynx combined for 165 points (in an overtime game), 151 and 154 points.

Now the total points for this game stands at 155, a sign that the oddsmakers are expecting something similar to the last two meetings between these teams.

Minnesota played a high-scoring series against the weak Phoenix Mercury defense in the first round, but I expect the Suns to slow this game down and try to limit Collier, who is averaging 40 points in two playoff appearances this season achieved per game.

The Sun are one of the best UNDER teams in the W at 23-19 this season, and the Lynx aren’t far off their mark (22-20-1).

If both teams play to their strengths – defense and targeted offense – I expect this game to be under 155 points.

Selection: UNDER 155 (-115)

Odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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