This week’s data is likely to show a further decline in inflation

ISTANBUL

Data to be released by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK) later this week is expected to show a further decline in the annual inflation rate in September.

Annual inflation in Türkiye is expected to fall from 51.97 percent in August to 48.1 percent in September, according to a survey of economists by state-run Anadolu Agency.

Economists’ inflation expectations for the end of 2024 are 43.23 percent.

The statistics agency will announce the inflation figures on October 3rd.

A central bank survey published last week showed that annual inflation expectations for the next twelve months fell by 1.2 points to 27.5 percent among market participants and by 2.7 points to 51.1 percent in the real sector.

Inflation expectations among private households fell by 1.5 points to 71.6 percent in the same period. The proportion of households that expect inflation to fall in the next twelve months fell by 0.6 percentage points to 29 percent.

In its latest medium-term program, the government assumes an inflation rate of 41.5 percent at the end of the year in 2024. It expects inflation to fall to 17.5 percent next year and to 9.7 percent in 2026.

This week will also see the release of Turkish manufacturing PMI survey results.

Last month’s survey showed the manufacturing PMI was 47.8 in August, up from 47.2 in July, but still suggesting a weakening in the sector’s health over the month.

Any reading above the 50 mark indicates an overall improvement in the sector.