Oregon vs. UCLA Prediction and Best Bets – NCAAF Tips for Week 5

The no.

The Ducks have had the same number as the Bruins lately, and my Oregon vs. UCLA predictions are that we’ll see more of the same tonight.

Read all about it in my college football picks for September 28th.

Oregon vs UCLA Prediction

My best choice
Oregon -25.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The UCLA Bruins looked completely inept in the first year of the Deshaun Foster era.

UCLA’s sputtering offense is averaging just 15.3 ppg and has failed to score more than 17 points in any of its first three contests. Quarterback Ethan Garbers has thrown more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three) while completing 56.7% of his passes, and he’s operating behind a moribund offensive line that’s well below a Power 4 level.

The Bruins pass a lot (third in pass rate), but don’t do it well (115th in pass rate). The line cannot block, and therefore there was no ground game, averaging 60.3 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry.

Oregon’s defense hasn’t been perfect this year, but it still ranks 22nd in success rate, although one of its games came against play-wrecking force Ashton Jeanty and the top-10 efficient offense he led. The Ducks’ biggest weakness was on the floor (119th in EPA per rush, 131st in rushing explosiveness), but that weakness is completely negated in this matchup.

On the other hand, Dillon Gabriel leads a potent Oregon offense that ranks 14th in success rate and is capable of beating you both in the air and on the ground.

I’ve seen conversations about how well UCLA’s defense is doing this season, but I simply couldn’t disagree more. The only reason the Bruins are allowing less than 30 ppg (29.7) is because they play slow on offense (104th in pace).

Ikaika Malloe’s defense will be significantly inferior in the secondary (112th in EPA per pass, 131st in pass success rate) and bears no resemblance to a pass rush, which is a recipe for disaster on good offenses.

Oregon vs. UCLA Same Game Parlay (SGP)

Oregon -25.5

Under 55.5

Dillon Gabriel 3+ passing touchdowns

Gabriel over 275 yards

Jordan James over 80 rushing yards

UCLA seems content to stick with the ball offensively and snap the ball as infrequently as possible to shorten the game. This is the Bruin’s best chance for an upset, and it would be shocking if they didn’t take that approach on Saturday knowing their players will be heavily outnumbered.

While this may leave the game under the overall score, it won’t stop Oregon’s offense from having a successful day at the office. Gabriel is a Heisman hopeful who completes 84% ​​of his passes for 9.7 yards per attempt while averaging 304.7 yards per game, and this is a beautiful matchup.

UCLA is expected to be shorthanded on the defensive front. Defensive tackle Keanu Williams is out this year, while Sitiveni Havili-Kaufusi missed practice this week along with defensive end Jacob Busic.

Oregon running back Jordan James has rushed for at least 86 yards in every game this year, running behind a good offensive line (23rd in line yards, 30th in stuff rate) and cutting after a few changes early in the Season better.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon vs UCLA odds

Oregon vs UCLA live odds

Oregon vs. UCLA opening odds

• Spread Oregon vs. UCLA: UCLA +24
• Oregon vs UCLA Moneyline: Oregon -3,000 | UCLA +1,300
• Oregon vs. UCLA Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Oregon vs. UCLA spread and over/under analysis

• Oregon has performed well on the road, closing the gap in five of its last six road games.
• UCLA doesn’t have much of a home field advantage and is 0-4 ATS in its last four games in the Rose Bowl. Since kick-off is so late (8:00 p.m. local time), there will likely be a fairly tame crowd that won’t cause visitors any nervousness at all.
• UCLA has been an under team through and through, winning the under in nine of its last 12 games.

Things to know about the Oregon vs. UCLA betting trends

Oregon is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings with UCLA. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs. UCLA.

Information about the Oregon vs. UCLA game

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Oregon vs. UCLA weather

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