Complete NFL Predictions, Tips for All Week 4

The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season.

SUNDAY

PANTHERS (+4.5) over Bengals: Andy Dalton has breathed new life into a Panthers team that simply lost faith in Bryce Young. Dalton was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last week and faces a woeful defense on the Bengals, Dalton’s former team. There could be another shootout on Sunday. The Bengals win with a late field goal.

JETS (-7.5) over Broncos: I expect some home favorites with big numbers to actually report this week, starting with the Jets. Aaron Rodgers played against the Patriots last week and has 10 long days of rest, no travel and Denver flying across the country. A wonderful place for the Jets to select a rookie QB on the move.

Steelers (-2.5) over COLTS: Will Anthony Richardson even survive this game? The Steelers hit incredibly hard. Simply put, Richardson can’t throw the ball much at all and takes way too many big hits to be a viable quarterback. The Colts rank 16th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), compared to sixth for the Steelers, who also rank fourth in overall defensive DVOA.

Vikings (+3) over PACKERS: Jordan Love is expected to return for the Packers this weekend, but Brian Flores’ defense is brutal. Love might be a little rusty, maybe not healthy, and that’s a bad game against Minnesota. We want to bet on the street dogs in this divisional rivalry.

TEXANS (-6.5) over Jaguars: Normally the Jaguars are so bad that this would be an overreaction to bet on Jacksonville. But the Texans also lost last week and were also disappointing. Houston has the seventh-best defense in the NFL according to DVOA. This is a top spot for Houston, and there’s no reason to believe in Jacksonville – it’s still on the move and having a short week.

FALCONS (-2.5) over Saints: Saints are extremely banged up, and barring a few bad coaching decisions and unfortunate officiating decisions, the Falcons would have beaten the Chiefs. The Saints’ offensive line fell from the top of the NFL to 30th in the league in Pro Football Focus. Alvin Kamara is questionable, adding to the uncertainty for The Big Easy crew.

Rams (+3) over BEARS: Coaching advantage of the week, despite the injuries: Sean McVay over Matt Eberflus. And there’s Matthew Stafford versus Caleb Williams. Chicago’s defense could give Stafford fits, but Williams isn’t suited for that favorite role. McVay pits the Rams against an overrated Bears defense and an offense that ranks 32nd in DVOA. Yuck.

BUCCANNEERS (+1.5) over Eagles: Overreacting to a terrible performance as a heavy favorite. The Buccaneers are a big underdog but a poor favorite. Tampa Bay emerged as the favorite at 8-10 after last week’s surprise loss to Denver. Since last season, the Bucs have been among the best in the league on the money line as underdogs at 7-7.

CARDINALS (-3.5) over commanders: Is Jayden Daniels that good yet? Or is Cincinnati’s defense that bad? Either way, we’re dealing with a shootout here. According to Pro Football Focus and DVOA, the Commanders’ defense is the worst in the NFL. It’s hard to stomach this level of badness when the Cardinals gave the seemingly unstoppable Bills everything they could handle in Week 1.

Patriots (+10.5) over 49ERS: Ten days of preparation for the 49ers is a gift for the Patriots, 10.5 is a crazy number here. Jacoby Brissett is a solid starter who can cover the spread, with strong defense and a strong running game that should keep San Francisco’s offense in check.

Browns (-1.5) over RAIDERS: We make business decisions here. Don’t bet Antonio Pierce on anything less than a field goal. Cleveland isn’t great, we beat them well last weekend, but don’t think for a second that the Browns will lose this game. These two teams are ranked 30th and 31st in DVOA. Don’t look at this game, but make some money with it.

CHARGERS (+7) over Chieftains: Jim Harbaugh never really needs a star quarterback, but if you give him one, he’ll win a Super Bowl. This line implies that Justin Herbert (questionably) won’t play. That’s fine with us, they’ll field JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards with the 4th best defense (PFF) in the league to keep that defense within reach.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Bills: This is one of the better Sunday Night Football games we’ve seen in recent years. In my opinion, Baltimore is the more desperate squad and Buffalo is really on the rise after beating Jacksonville. The Bills only traveling for a short week is also a handicap, but make no mistake, these are two top teams in the NFL. Buffalo is No. 1 in DVOA and Baltimore is No. 5.

Betting on the NFL?

MONDAY

DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Titans: Will Levis or Tyler Huntley? Huntley starts this weekend and adds a nice running element to an offense that has been an embarrassment under Skylar Thompson. They need to win a game at some point, but Will Levis may have to wait a week to secure a win as they are the 32nd ranked team according to PFF.

Seahawks (+3.5) over LIONS: Detroit didn’t look nearly as dominant as we expected given their talent. This was supposed to be a flight affair on Monday. According to PFF, these are two top-notch run defenses, and the Lions allowed just 3.6 yards per carry. Detroit is untrustworthy and Goff is currently the 24th best quarterback in the NFL according to PFF, while Geno Smith is ranked 6th. I expect Seattle to win by a field goal.

LAST WEEK: 7-8.

SEASON: 19-25.

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blue belt, but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During football season, he made huge profits in the player prop market during his final two seasons at The Post. Although he is constantly betting on distance, his return on investment since 2022 is 30.15 percent.