Washington State vs. Boise State Prediction and Best Bets – NCAAF Tips for Week 5

Two of the hottest offenses in the country collide tonight as the Washington State Cougars take on the No. 25 Boise State Broncos.

The Cougars earned a wild 54-52 overtime win over San Jose State, while the Broncos defeated Portland State 56-14. My Washington State vs. Boise State predictions explain why this matchup will have as many points as those matchups.

Read all about it in my college football picks for Saturday, September 28th.

Washington State vs. Boise State prediction

My best choice
Over 63.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The scintillating duel between the Washington State Cougars and the Boise State Broncos in Week 5 features two teams that play and act offensively.

The Cougs run a fast-paced, score-friendly, shootout-friendly scheme under offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. That was evident in last week’s game against San Jose State, which yielded a total of 106 points, and there will likely be many more high-scoring, high-variance games to come.

Wazzu ranks 17th in pace, hitting the ball 2.47 times per minute. Quarterback John Mateer is a threat through the air (9.5 yards per attempt, 275.5 passing yards per game) and on the ground (team-high 425 rushing yards at 7.5 yards per carry). Efficient (27th in EPA per game) and explosive (third in explosiveness), the Cougs posed a challenge for anyone to stop.

Boise State has returned much of its defense from a year ago, but the numbers haven’t been great in 2023, and they’ve been worse so far (115th in EPA per game, 117th in explosiveness).

On the other hand, I believe Boise State’s offense is the best unit in this game and the best of any Group 5 team in the country. The Broncos rank 10th in EPA per game and are led by superstar Ashton Jeanty, who leads the nation with 199.3 scrimmage yards per game.

Boise is averaging 48.7 ppg and will be hard to deny as long as Jeanty is around. He is truly the most dominant force in college football and his presence changes the complexity of every game.

The Broncos are 3-0 O/U to start the year, and I see that trend continuing with a willing dance partner in Week 5. Both teams rank in the top 40 in pace, have moved the ball efficiently offensively, and have extremely suspect defenses.

Same game between Washington State and Boise State (SGP)

Over 63.5

Boise State -7.5

It’s hard not to be a fan of what Washington State has done so far this year. The Cougs defeated their rival Washington 24-19, handily defeated Texas Tech 37-16, celebrated a thrilling 54-52 win over San Jose State and averaged an astonishing 12.5 yards per game in a 70-30 Win against Portland State.

Nevertheless, the weak points are obvious. It’s not encouraging to compete with San Jose State – a team with a new coaching staff and a completely rebuilt roster. The defense has given up at least 449 yards in every game.

Boise State almost pulled off a complete upset on the road against No. 8 Oregon, so this quality team can clearly compete. This will be the Broncos’ first home game of the year against an FBS opponent, while this will be the Cougs’ first true road game, so I like this date for the Broncos.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Washington State vs. Boise State odds

Live odds for Washington State vs. Boise State

Washington State vs. Boise State opening odds

• Distribution between Washington State and Boise State: Boise State -7
• Money line Washington State vs. Boise State: Washington State +225, Boise State -275
• Washington State vs. Boise State Over/Under: 64.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Washington State vs. Boise State spread and over/under analysis

• Boise State has covered the first quarter spread (-3) in eight of its last 12 games.
• It might be worth taking a look at the first half total (31.5). Washington State has reached the first half total overtime in seven of its last 12 games, while Boise State has reached the first half total overtime in nine of its last 12
• Going back to last season, the Broncos are 6-0 O/U in their last six games.
• Text 4.

Things to know about the Washington State vs. Boise State betting trend

Boise State is 9-3 O/U in its last 12 games at Albertsons Stadium. Find more college football betting trends for Washington State vs. Boise State.

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