Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction 10/19/24 College Football Tips

The Kentucky Wildcats and Florida Gators meet on Saturday in college football action at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Here is a prediction for Florida vs. Kentucky. We’ll look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best choice between Florida and Kentucky.

Kentucky Wildcats betting preview

Kentucky earned a blowout victory over Southern Miss 31-0 in its opener, then lost to South Carolina 31-6 and Georgia 13-12 in the next pair. However, the Wildcats bounced back with wins over Ohio (41-6) and Ole Miss (20-17) in games four and five.

In last weekend’s Vanderbilt game, the Wildcats trailed 17-7 early in the fourth quarter and ultimately lost 20-13. Brock Vandagriff threw for 158 yards and a TD. Leading the receivers was Dane Key with eight grabs for 83 yards and the touchdown.

Florida Gators betting preview

On the Florida side, they got off to a 3-2 start in their first five games. The two losses came 41-7 against Miami-FL and 33-20 against Texas A&M. Otherwise there were wins with 45:7 against Samford, 45:28 against Mississippi State and 24:13 against UCF.

Last weekend against Tennessee, Florida held the Vols at bay for most of the game, but ultimately lost a tough game 23-17 in overtime. The Gators gained 125 yards and a touchdown from QB Graham Mertz (who left with a leg injury) on 12 carries and 85 yards from lead rusher Montrell Johnson.

Why the Florida Gators will win

• Kentucky has lost nine of its last 10 games in October.
• Florida has won nine of its last games Oct. 10 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
• Kentucky has failed to even the spread in each of its last four October games against teams not ranked in the AP.
• The favorite has covered the spread in four of Florida’s last five games at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win

• The road team has won four of Kentucky’s last five games.
• Kentucky has closed the gap in each of its last four games as an underdog.
• Florida has failed to make up the difference in its last three overtime games.

Total score facts

• Eight of Kentucky’s last nine games in October as underdogs against teams not ranked in the AP rankings went UNDER the total score.
• Four of Florida’s last five games as a favorite against Kentucky have gone UNDER the total score.

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

I’m going with Florida. The Gators suffered a few tough setbacks over the weekend, losing a close one to a great Tennessee team, and also saw Mertz leave the game with an injury. The good news is that rookie QB DJ Lagway should be able to step in and keep things moving. That being said, Florida’s defense (which gave the Vols just 312 yards and 4 of 15 on third down) will keep the scoreline manageable here.

As for Kentucky, they played a sloppy game against Vanderbilt (12 penalties) and only gained 322 total yards (158 passes) in their last loss. However, the Wildcats’ defense was pretty solid (288 yards allowed), so this weekend’s matchup could be relatively low-scoring.