The rematch between Duarte and Gray remains close as the challenger reports a win in the third quarter

With less than a week until the 13th Congressional District’s Friday night debate at Modesto’s State Theater and just over two weeks until the Nov. 5 general election, Democrat Adam Gray now appears poised to make a strong run to the finish line after a massive fundraising campaign in the third quarter.

Gray, a former five-term Merced assemblyman, added nearly $2.3 million to his coffers in July, August and September, while Assemblyman John Duarte (R-Modesto) collected about $830,000 – about Third of what his rival took.

“Big donors are trying to get me out so the Democratic Party can advance their agenda,” Duarte said. “If you analyze the numbers, you will see that there is very little support coming from the Central Valley.”

According to ProPublica.org, both candidates now have about $2 million in cash — Duarte at $2 million and Gray at $1.8 million — as their camps head toward the end of one of the most competitive races in the country.

“I just think it shows that this election is about change rather than more of the same,” Gray said. “I think voters are ready for change. And when that kind of money flows, it supports the fact that voters want change; They want a Congress that is serious about its work.”

Gray blasts Duarte harshly because he is a member of the 118th Congress, a divisive assembly that has struggled to pass meaningful legislation such as a farm bill, a border security bill and aid to Ukraine.

Ten years ago, a Southern Illinois University political scientist – J. Tobin Grant – found that the 112th Congress (2011-2013) was the least productive since the Civil War. The 113th Congress was even less productive, and now the 118th is on track to surpass both as they are altogether pointless.

“First of all, we stopped the inflationary flow of money when the government was still under full Democratic control,” Duarte said. “A divided government runs slower, but we have passed bills to help veterans access services, we passed the Supply Chain Improvement Act to help get food to grocers more economically, and we have tens of millions of dollars to grocers “The smallest communities in the Valley are providing resources that these communities have not seen in decades.”

Duarte, a political newcomer in 2022, secured the seat by just 564 votes, the second-closest margin of any House race this year. Back in January, reputable pollsters classified the second leg in 2024 as a “draw”. However, just this week, one pollster — Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales — changed the race’s status from “toss-up” to “leaning Democratic.” Gray also leads Duarte by two percentage points overall, 44.4 percent to 42.4 percent, within the margin of error, according to a collection of polls compiled by three Southern California universities — USC, Long Beach State and Cal-Poly Pomona. This survey was conducted between September 14th and 21st.

One issue that caught attention across the country last year was the issue of reproductive rights. Gray suggests that Duarte has created confusion on the matter.

“As you know, I voted to amend the state constitution to strengthen a woman’s right to make her own health care decisions,” Gray said. “It’s an incredibly important issue and John Duarte is running a dishonest campaign. He says he is pro-choice but is supported by Californians for Life, a pro-life group. He talks out of both corners of his mouth.”

Of course, the incumbent sees it differently.

“I’m pro-choice; Everyone knows that,” Duarte said. “I ran as a pro-choice candidate last time. I am the lowest-ranking Republican in the (conservative advocacy group) Heritage Action caucus. I was one of two Republicans who voted to protect reproductive rights. I have a voting record on this and it is very clear.”

With such razor-thin margins, Friday’s debate in Modesto could be crucial for both candidates.

“I think debates are important because they give voters an opportunity to hear directly from John and me,” Gray said. “I look forward to bringing the case to trial here, and the case is pretty simple: John Duarte is part of the most unproductive Congress in history. He wasn’t able to do cross-party work, and that’s exactly what I did for ten years in the state legislature. I helped pass 10 on-time, balanced budgets. Voters will have the opportunity to review these documents.”

Duarte believes the debate is important, especially because it comes so close to Election Day, but not as the be-all and end-all of the campaign.

“Importantly, I have a strong track record of solving real problems for the Valley, such as gasoline and grocery prices,” Duarte said. “Words will not succeed in this election. I have built relationships with leaders across the valley who have never seen the results I have achieved.”

The debate is sponsored by the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, the Maddy Institute and the Center for Analytic Political Engagement at UC Merced. Seats for the event are no longer available, but it will be broadcast live on CapRadio 91.3 FM (Stanislaus County) and KVPR 89.3 FM (Merced and Fresno Counties).