Georgia vs. Texas prediction: Who will win and why?

A Game of the Year candidate starts under the lights on the Forty Acres as No. 1 Texas looks to stay perfect against No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night in Week 8 of college football. Here’s what to look for in the matchup with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia is 5-1 overall and 3-1 in SEC play and will be hoping to avoid a costly loss in the second conference as the College Football Playoff selection committee will be closely watching how this game unfolds if they are seeded 12 best teams later this year.

One of 11 undefeated college football teams, Texas earned a commanding 31-point win over Oklahoma that marked the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers to the helm of the nation’s seventh-ranked offense.

What can we expect when the Bulldogs and Longhorns meet in this new SEC matchup?

Here’s what to look for when Georgia meets Texas in this Week 8 college football game with our updated prediction.

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 1,818 yards while averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt, scoring 15 touchdowns and throwing 5 interceptions.

Beck had a total of 898 yards on 98 passes against Alabama and Mississippi State, but along with that performance also came 5 interceptions against 6 touchdown throws.

Georgia averaged 33.5 points per game, good for 40th nationally, and has scored 25 touchdowns against a Texas defense that is ranked No. 1 in FBS and allows just 6.3 points per game, 3 total touchdowns has given up the fewest, and is the only team to allow fewer than 40 total combined points (38).

Georgia ranks 3rd nationally with 17 passing plays of 30 or more yards, but Texas, which is No. 1 in overall FBS defense, is also tops with 8 plays given up of 20 yards or more and 2 plays allowed of 30 or more yards in the country more yards.

In the red zone, Georgia ranks 25th nationally in scoring on 24 of 26 opportunities, a success rate of over 92 percent, with 18 of those scores (69%) being touchdowns.

However, Texas is No. 2 in red zone defense, holding opponents to 4 of 7 chances and just 1 touchdown, with the last three points tied for the fewest in the nation.

His main target is wide receiver Arian Smith, who has 412 yards receiving on 23 receptions, averaging 17.9 yards per catch, and scored 3 touchdowns.

Dillon Bell leads Georgia with 4 touchdown catches and Dominic Lovett is the Bulldogs’ second most productive receiver with 302 yards and 2 touchdown grabs.

Trevor Etienne has 335 rushing yards with an average of 5.3 yards per carry and has scored 4 of Georgia’s 10 rushing touchdowns.

Branson Robinson has three rushing touchdowns but left last week’s game with a leg injury.

Quinn Ewers is a 72.2 percent shooter with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt while amassing 890 yards through the air.

Texas is No. 7 in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 43.2 points per game, and is 4th in scoring offense with 35 total touchdowns scored. Georgia is 20th in scoring with 17.2 points per game defense and has conceded 10 touchdowns, the sixth fewest nationally.

Texas ranks 13th nationally in third-down offense, converting 36 of 72 attempts with a 50 percent conversion rate, while Georgia ranks 32nd in the FBS, allowing 25 of 76 chances (32.89 percent).

Isaiah Bond, a transfer from Alabama, is the Longhorns’ most productive receiver. He catches 3 touchdowns on 21 grabs for 369 yards and averages nearly 18 yards per reception.

Seven Texas receivers have at least two touchdown catches, with Matthew Golden (246 yards) and DeAndre Moore (152 yards) being the other players with three scoring receptions.

Quintrevion Wisner leads the Longhorns on the ground with 278 yards and 2 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

Jaydon Blue scored twice, while Jerrick Gibson and quarterback Arch Manning each had three rushing touchdowns and Texas averaged 5.1 yards per carry as a group.

Texas ranks 11th in the FBS with 19 sacks this season and is averaging 3.17 sacks per game. Georgia ranks 29th in sacks allowed (7), giving up just 1.17 sacks each time.

The Longhorns have allowed a total of 6 sacks this year, the 14th fewest in the country, and are allowing an average of 1 sack per game, while the Bulldogs are recording 1.83 sacks per game and have 11 on the season, good for just 80th in the FBS corresponds.

Texas converted 29 (fourth-most) of its 33 (third-most) red zone chances (88%) into points, including 26 touchdowns, for a 79% success rate in reaching the end zone from scoring position.

Most analytical models are on the home team’s side in this historic SEC matchup.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Most 76.3 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup favor Texas as the clear winner.

This leaves Georgia as the expected winner of the remaining 23.7 percent of Sims.

And the model expects the Longhorns to win by double digits over the Bulldogs.

According to the model’s latest projection, Texas is expected to be 10.7 points better than Georgia with both teams’ current makeup on the same field.

More… Texas vs. Georgia Prediction: What the Analyzes Say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas is a 4.5-point favorite against Georgia.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 56.5 points (over -105, under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -200 and Georgia at +170 to win outright.

A slim majority of bettors are expecting the Longhorns to defeat the Bulldogs, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is receiving 54 percent of bets on winning the game against Georgia and covering the spread.

The remaining 46 percent of bets assume the Bulldogs will either outright beat the Longhorns in an upset or keep the game within the 4.5-point line.

Desperation is a damn good drug, and while it would be premature to call Georgia desperate, a second conference loss would be devastating when it comes time for the selection committee to select the top 12 teams for the new College Football Playoff.

Those are the stakes as the Bulldogs face off in Austin against a Longhorns team loaded with playmakers who can conquer the top of Georgia’s secondary but haven’t really been tested yet.

They defeated a Michigan team that can’t actually throw the ball and dominated a bad Mississippi State, among other results that put the Texas defense in perspective.

And while Carson Beck didn’t have the run support he could have needed to make things easier, he still has the arm, targets and quality pass protection to keep this game exciting all night long.

Texas has some key advantages, including an excellent offensive line that protects its quarterback very well and counters a Bulldog pass rush that isn’t what it used to be.

So while Beck and the Georgia receivers will keep things tense from start to finish, the relative declines in the front seven and secondary that were exposed in the Alabama loss will be against a strong vertical game in Texas that’s over the has the necessary means to pull this off, come to light again.

College football headquarters chooses…

More…Georgia vs. Texas Result Prediction by Expert Model

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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