Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

Big Ten football is back this weekend as No. 24 Michigan takes on No. 22 Illinois on Saturday in Week 8 of college football. Here’s what to look for when the Wolverines and Fighting Illini meet with our updated prediction for the game.

Michigan suffered its first loss in Big Ten play and its second loss of the season and still lacks a credible vertical threat, ranking 131st out of 134 FBS teams in passing efficiency.

Illinois won its two Big Ten games by a total of 8 points, with a 14-point decision at Penn State, the school’s only loss, and coming off a thrilling 1-point overtime victory against inferior Purdue this first of two duels against ranked conference opponents.

What can we expect when the Wolverines take on the Fighting Illini this weekend?

Here’s what to look for when Michigan and Illinois meet in this Week 8 college football game with our updated prediction.

Michigan’s three quarterbacks have combined to throw for 690 yards and average 5.2 yards per pass with 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions this season.

This week, seventh-grader Jack Tuttle, who gave the offense some momentum last week, takes the lead after unsuccessfully beating Alex Orji and Davis Warren.

Michigan has 1 fewer passing touchdowns than Army despite throwing the ball 87 times more, and ranks 102nd in the FBS in offense, averaging 23.5 points per game.

The Wolverines rank 74th nationally in third down wins, converting 30 of 77 chances for a rate of 38.96 percent.

In the red zone, Michigan converted 90.91 percent of offensive opportunities into points, scoring 10 of 11 points, including 8 touchdowns (72.73%). But those 11 chances are the second fewest in the nation.

Michigan ranks 130th among 134 FBS teams with 53 games with gains of 10 or more yards this season, 131st with 16 games of more than 20 yards and 109th with 9 gains of at least 30 yards .

Ranked 40th nationally, Michigan is allowing a total of 8 sacks this season and giving up 1.33 sacks per game.

The Wolverines rank 34th in the FBS, have 27 tackles for a loss this season and have given up 4.5 TFLs to opponents per game.

Kalel Mullings leads the Wolverines’ rushing attack, which is essentially the team’s offense right now. He totals 589 yards on the ground with a 6.5 YPC average and 6 of Michigan’s 9 rushing touchdowns.

Donovan Edwards scored the team’s other three rushing touchdowns and has 353 yards on 73 carries this season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Michigan ranks third nationally in run defense, allowing just 2.86 yards per carry and over 76 yards per game. In rushing offense, Michigan ranks 40th, averaging 191 yards per game and 5.06 yards per carry.

Tight end Colston Loveland is Michigan’s primary goalie, catching 29 passes for 261 yards and having 2 of the team’s 6 touchdown catches.

Illinois ranks 87th in FBS in rushing production, averaging 139.5 yards per game, and 58th nationally in passing with 243 yards through the air.

Luke Altmyer is a 68 percent passer with 14 touchdowns and 1 interception, but has been sacked 19 times, ranking 122nd nationally in that category and sixth-worst among Power Four teams.

Pat Bryant is Altmyer’s main target, catching 27 passes for 452 yards and 7 of the team’s 14 receiving touchdowns.

Tight end Tanner Arkin is the only other receiver with more than one touchdown (2), and Zakhari Franklin is the Illini’s second-most productive pass catcher with 346 yards and a score.

Illinois ranks 49th nationally in offensive rating, averaging 31 points per game and in third down conversions, moving the chains on 45.83 percent of chances (33 of 72).

And the team is No. 9 in the FBS in the red zone, scoring on 24 of 25 opportunities (96%), with 17 of those 24 points converted into touchdowns, ninth-most.

Illinois ranks 90th nationally with 10 plays of at least 30 yards, 31st with 33 plays of 20 yards and 50th with 90 plays of 10 or more yards.

Protecting the quarterback is an issue for the Illini, who are ranked 119th nationally and allowing 19 sacks on the year, including an average of 3.17 surrendered sacks per game.

These protection issues extend to total negative plays allowed, as Illinois gives up 7.5 tackles for loss per game and has given up a total of 45 TFLs on the year.

Run defense is a weak point for Illinois, which ranks 77th in the FBS and allows over 149 yards per game, including an average of 4.54 yards per carry, but has only conceded 5 touchdowns on the ground.

Most analytical models favor the Wolverines over the Illini in this game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Michigan is projected to win the game outright in a majority of 59.6 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 40.4 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Michigan is projected to be 3.8 points better than Illinois with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Prediction Michigan vs. Illinois: What the analyzes say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Michigan is a 3.5-point favorite against Illinois.

FanDuel lists the overall score for the game as 44.5 points (over -110, under -110).

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -185 for Michigan and +155 for Illinois.

A multitude of bettors are expecting the home team to make this a game, as shown by the latest spread consensus tips for the game.

Illinois receives 59 percent of bets on either winning in an upset or keeping the game within the close line.

The other 41 percent of bets assume Michigan will win the game and cover the spread.

One area to watch is how well Michigan’s talented front-seven tacklers can post an Illinois guard coming into the game ranked 125th nationally in pressure rate allowed.

Altmyer may lead the Big Ten with 14 passing touchdowns, but a quarterback under as much pressure as he is isn’t going to be able to establish the rhythm he wants with all those Wolverines in his face.

Still, it’s no secret that Michigan’s vertical game isn’t going anywhere.

And while it has the power to control the pace and time of possession on the floor, that formula could falter against an Illinois front seven that has the bodies necessary to load the box and the Wolverines’ momentum to thwart while Altmyer finds just enough on the backside.

College football headquarters chooses…

More… Michigan vs. Illinois result prediction by expert model

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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