UFC Fight Night Prediction – Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira: Fight card, odds, start time, live stream

Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira are among the most impressive fighters to bubble up in the UFC’s official middleweight top 10. One of them will remain on the road to middleweight elite status at the expense of the other at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.

Hernandez (12-2, 1 NC) is a surprising success story. Markus Perez and Kevin Holland ended Dana White’s Contender Series early in their UFC run. Hernandez opened his eyes against highly decorated jiu-jitsu star Rodolfo Vieira. Hernandez tired Vieira and surprisingly submitted the famous grappler. Hernandez is now on a five-fight winning streak with four stoppages, most recently defeating elite striker Roman Kopylov. He next turns his attention to another respected striker.

“I started as a kickboxer. I have a lot of amateur kickboxing fights. I have a lot of Muay Thai fights. I even have an amateur Muay Thai title,” Hernandez told CBS Sports. “I got really good at grappling because I kept getting hit up and down as an amateur. I was like, ‘Bro, this shit can’t keep happening.’

“I’ve fought so much that everyone thinks I’m a grappler. At the end of the day, I am a mixed martial artist. I know how to do everything. I like to mix things up. That is my strength. I’ve never been the greatest kickboxer, grappler or wrestler, but if you let me fight and it’s violent, I can always do it and be the best in the world.

Hernandez was notably paired with Dricus du Plessis at UFC 273 in April 2022. Du Plessis was instead paired with Kelvin Gastelum through a card swap. Neither fight took place, but du Plessis became middleweight champion two years later. When asked to reflect on the butterfly effect of their canceled fight, Hernandez suggested that if the fight had come to fruition, he “would probably already be champion.”

Pereira (31-11, 2 NC) is finally living up to expectations. The Capoeira wildman is a human highlight who uses flip stomps and jump kicks to make his way into the hearts of fans. Pereira’s admitted immaturity led to embarrassing losses to Tristan Connelly and Diego Sanchez early in his UFC run. Pereira’s newfound restraint gave him eight straight wins. In 2023, Pereira moved to middleweight full-time, in the midst of his winning streak that included three straight finishes. It’s been a slow climb up the rankings, but Pereira is patient and confident that his work will soon be rewarded.

“Everything has its time. Everything has its timing,” Pereira told CBS Sports through an interpreter. “I sow and reap. It happens. It’s just a matter of time because the results are there.”

Pereira shares his opponent’s perspective that Saturday’s main event is more than just strikers versus grapplers. Pereira has almost as many submission finishes as knockouts, something that gets overlooked due to his dynamic striking.

“I have a black belt in jiu-jitsu,” Pereira said. “You saw all my placings by submission. I’m a guy who feels comfortable on the ground. I trained a lot in jiu-jitsu and wrestling. I’ve always said it’s better to have something and not need it and use it than to need it and not have it.

Watch the full interview with Michel Pereira below.

Saturday’s main event will not feature the top-ranked fighters on either card. That honor goes to the co-main event. Rob Font (No. 10) defends his spot in the bantamweight rankings against rising contender Kyler Phillips (No. 12). Font is on the worst 1-4 run of his career. Font’s days as a legitimate contender appear to be over, but he can find solace in facing off against former UFC champions Deiveson Figueiredo and Jose Aldo, title challenger Marlon Vera and perennial contender Cory Sandhagen. Phillips is on an upward trend with consecutive wins over Pedro Munhoz, Raonis Barcelos and Marcelo Rojo.

Below is the rest of Saturday’s fight card with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and decide on the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night ad information

Date: Oct 19 | Start time: 7:00 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: UFC Apex-Las Vegas
TV channels: ESPN+

forecast

Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira: The longer the fight lasts, the more it benefits Hernandez. Neither fighter has much five-round experience on the independent scene. Hernandez is known for his cardio workouts, while Pereira reportedly gassed himself out dancing to his Tristan Connelly fight. In Pereira’s defense, that was a long time ago in a lower weight class. Hernandez averages a ridiculous 6.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Meanwhile, Pereira remains strong with an impressive 94% takedown defense.

Saturday’s main event could be similar to Hernandez’s last fight. Hernandez took big hits early from Kopylov before overwhelming him with tenacious wrestling. Pereira bridges the technical gap between him and Kopylov with explosive athleticism. The Brazilian fighter is also much better at grappling than Kopylov. But if Hernandez can undercut a tired Vieira, he can do the same here. This is a big test for both men. Pereira can certainly win within 15 minutes, but I suspect Hernandez will overwhelm him en route to a submission or decision win. Pereira has only been stopped twice in 44 fights, so I’m leaning towards a decision. Hernandez by unanimous decision