Will Donald Trump win in 2024? Dramatic shift in betting market prediction odds against Kamala

Put simply, a betting market valuation of 60% means that traders expect Trump to win around 60 out of 100 possible election results, not that he will necessarily be ahead in direct voter polls.

The prediction market is giving Donald Trump a big boost

Several other prediction markets also reflect this dynamic for Trump. For example, Betfair puts the probability of a Trump win at 58%, while Kalshi puts it at 57%, PredictIt at 54% and Smarkets at 58%. The Election Betting Odds Aggregator, which compiles data from these major platforms, puts Trump’s odds at 57%, the largest increase in his favor since late July, compared to 48% at the end of September.

Poll data suggests an uphill battle

However, the survey data paints a more nuanced picture. Survey aggregators like FiveThirtyEight suggest a slightly different scenario. FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages give Kamala Harris a slight lead, with around 48-49% in her favor compared to Trump’s 46-47%. The bigger fight, however, lies in the seven swing states, which again give Trump a slight advantage.

This polling trend is consistent with Real Clear Polling’s weighted averages, which show Harris holding a slim 49.2% to 47.7% lead over Trump.

Why is the betting and prediction market showing bearish trends?

These conflicting trends between prediction markets and poll data often occur during election cycles. Betting markets such as those on Polymarket and other platforms provide information about how participants assess the probability of winning. This is not a direct reflection of poll numbers, but rather an assessment of the likelihood of Trump winning in a variety of possible election scenarios.

Nate Silver, a statistician associated with FiveThirtyEight, has noted that betting markets can sometimes reflect a bias based on participant demographics. He points out that Trump-aligned users on platforms like Polymarket could skew results, leading to higher perceived odds for Trump, even if polls suggest closer competition.

In addition to prediction markets, broader financial indicators also trended in Trump’s favor. Stocks tied to Trump’s business ventures, such as Trump Media and Technology Group, have risen sharply in recent weeks, with shares rising 86% in October. Some investors see these market moves as signs of growing confidence in a Trump victory. Financial sectors that could benefit from possible policy changes under a Trump administration, such as banks and cryptocurrencies, also performed strongly.