Where to Watch Broncos vs. Saints: TV Channel, Live Stream NFL Game, Sean Payton Bowl Prediction

Sometimes it doesn’t matter who you play against, but when you play against them it makes all the difference. That could certainly be said about Thursday night’s game between the Broncos and Saints, a game that will open Week 7 of the NFL’s regular season.

A month ago, the Saints were atop the football world at 2-0, while the Broncos were 0-2 after scoring just six points in a loss to Pittsburgh in Week 2. Things are completely different now; New Orleans has lost four straight games and Denver had won three straight games before last weekend’s narrow loss to the Chargers.

Favoring the Broncos in this game would have been unthinkable four weeks ago. Quarterback play is the main reason the tide has turned. While the Saints’ season was already heading in the wrong direction, things continued to go downhill with Derek Carr’s Week 5 loss to the Saints. Conversely, much of the Broncos’ steady progress can be attributed to the continued growth of rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

Now that we’ve set the table, here’s how to watch the action along with our breakdown and prediction for Thursday night’s game.

Where to watch Broncos vs. Saints?

• When: Thursday, Oct. 17 | 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Caesar’s Superdome – New Orleans
• Live stream: Prime Video
• Consequences: CBS Sports App
• Opportunities: Broncos -2.4, OU 37 (via BetMGM)

When the Saints have the ball

Despite their four-game swoon, New Orleans’ offense still ranks fifth in the league in points scored. However, there’s a good chance that won’t be the case after Thursday night as the team will be without defenseman Cesar Ruiz (knee), wideouts Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee). Carr (oblique) and tight end Taysom Hill (rub) are questionable, while center/guard Lucas Patrick (chest) is questionable.

With Olave and Shaheed out, the Saints’ passing game will likely lean heavily on running back Alvin Kamara and tight ends Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson. Kamara enters the season as the team’s leading receiver with 28 catches on Thursday night. Moreau and Johnson combined to catch 21 passes for 230 yards and three touchdowns.

Rookie fifth-rounder Bub Means, the Saints’ most productive receiver entering Thursday night, is coming off his best NFL game to date. In last Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay, he caught 5 of 8 targets for 45 yards and a score. During his college career, which included stops at three different schools, Means was a deep threat and averaged 17.2 yards per catch.

With Carr doubtful and not practicing all week, rookie Spencer Rattler is set to make his second career start. Rattler quickly found his rhythm last Sunday, leading the Saints to four consecutive goals in the first half. But he and the offense stalled badly after that. The unit’s final eight drives included five punts and two interceptions by Rattler, who had five sacks.

In hindsight, the Saints probably didn’t like Rattler throwing 40 passes in his first NFL game. Against Denver, expect fewer throws from Rattler and more handoffs to Kamara and backfield mate Jamaal Williams, a former 1,000-yard rusher with the Lions who has only rushed for 27 yards so far this season.

Rattler and Co. have the unenviable task of facing a strong Denver defense. They may not be the Orange Crush, but Sean Payton’s unit is pretty good in its own right, led by cornerback Patrick Surtain II and a pass rush that has already sacked opposing quarterbacks 22 times.

Six Broncos have already recorded at least two sacks, led by outside linebacker Jonathan Cooper with 4.5 sacks. Rest assured, the Broncos’ stealth pass rush has caught the Saints’ attention, and it will be crucial for New Orleans not to allow that part of the Broncos team to take over the game.

Denver’s defense ranks among the top 10 in the NFL in many categories, including points allowed (fourth), passing yards allowed (fifth) and red zone efficiency (first). If there’s one area the Saints may be able to exploit, it’s Denver’s third down defense (19th in the league) and run defense (14th in yards allowed). This is where Kamara and Williams come into play.

Rattler needs to play smart, but he needs to let it rip at least once or twice to keep Denver’s defense honest.

When the Broncos have the ball

Nix’s rookie season didn’t go smoothly. But despite some turmoil, Nix still shows the promise that led the Broncos to select him with the 12th overall pick in April’s draft.

After posting a 0:4 touchdown-interception ratio in his first three games, Nix threw five touchdowns against just one pick in Denver’s final three games. He also had three scores this season and rushed for a season-high 61 yards on six carries in last week’s loss to the Chargers.

Last Sunday looked ugly for a long time before the Broncos’ offense mounted a late attack similar to Arnold Palmer’s legendary attack that won him the 1960 US Open, which happened to be played in Denver. But unlike Palmer, Nix’s late rally didn’t lead to victory.

The Broncos had five punts and two turnovers in their first seven drives, but they finished the day with two touchdowns and a field goal to get within one score of Los Angeles with 2:26 left. So what has changed? Los Angeles probably kept their foot on the gas, and Nix made them pay with incisive passes to Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele and Javonte Williams.

During Denver’s final three drives, Nix was 15 of 19, including completions of 29, 37, 20, 20 and 17 yards. He also threw touchdown passes to Franklin and Sutton.

Trailing by 23, Payton dashed any semblance of a balanced offense. Denver needed points and Nix was unleashed to pull off an upset. While it’s unrealistic to play an entire game like this, the closing sequence of last Sunday’s game was another example of how good Nix can be when he finds his rhythm. This sequence also showcased the big-play ability of the Broncos’ improving receiving corps.

The problem, however, was the lack of run support Nix received during the game, which contributed to the Broncos being just 3 of 11 on third down. This is not an isolated incident, as the Broncos have been one of the worst rushing teams in the league this year, ranking third at 31st in the league. Denver needs to get better in both areas if it wants to stay in the playoff race.

Luckily for the Broncos, they face a Saints defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. They also rank just 20th in the league in third-down defense.

Feast or famine would be an apt description for the Saints’ defense, which has slipped to 23rd in the league in points allowed after being in the top 10 in that department in Dennis Allen’s first two years as head coach. The Saints are second in the NFL in interceptions (10), have a solid pass rush (led by defensive tackles Bryan Bresee and Alontae Taylor) and are third in red zone efficiency.

Establishing a running game will be crucial for Payton’s offense on Thursday night. Nix also has to take care of the ball, which will be a challenge given the Saints’ penchant for intercepting opposing passes. At the same time, Nix can’t be gun-shy. After all, what good is a good defense if you never challenge them to rise to the challenge?

Broncos vs Saints Prediction

This should be an entertaining game on Thursday night, even if the execution may be lacking. This game will likely come down to which running game can get going and which quarterback can take better care of the ball. Both go hand in hand.

Matchups are important in sports betting. Looking at both teams, it appears the Broncos have several major advantages. They have a top-five defense going up against a rookie quarterback just starting his second career while his top two receivers aren’t playing. That’s enough to feel relatively safe picking the Broncos on the road unless Kamara runs wild, Rattler’s secondary receivers step up and the defense is able to fend off a few picks from Nix .

Payton gets his win against the team he led to the championship 15 years ago.

Score: Broncos 27, Saints 20 (Reaching the Over Set at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Check out more Pete Prisco NFL Picks in week 7.

Matt Severance, who has a 21-6 record in Broncos games, has released his best bets for Week 7’s “Thursday Night Football” game. Severance tends to be outnumbered, but who does he rely on as cover? Find out Right here at SportsLine.