LSU vs. Arkansas score prediction by an expert football model

SEC football returns this weekend when No. 8 LSU takes on Arkansas in a battle between teams with signature conference victories. Let’s check the latest predictions for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects results.

LSU rose in the rankings after a emphatic overtime win over Ole Miss last week that culminated in a five-game winning streak and moved to 2-0 in SEC play behind the No. 6 FBS passing offense averaging 337 yards per game.

Arkansas is a combined 12 points away from being undefeated and winning its season after defeating then-No. 4 Tennessee at home, 2-1 in SEC play.

What does the analysis suggest for this notable SEC matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how LSU and Arkansas will fare in this Week 8 college football game.

So far, the models are more on the side of the Tigers than the Razorbacks, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts LSU will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 32-27 and win the game by an expected 4.3 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 61 percent chance of an overall away win.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a win rate of 51.9, after being 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, LSU is a 2.5-point favorite against Arkansas.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 55.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -130 for LSU and +110 for Arkansas.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

A slim majority of bettors are expecting the Tigers to defeat the Razorbacks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

56 percent of bets predict LSU will beat Arkansas and cover the tight spread.

The other 44 percent of bets suggest the Hogs will either upset the Tigers at home or keep the game within reason.

Other analysis models also favor the Tigers with a close result over the Razorbacks.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

LSU is projected to win the game in a majority of 54.1 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 45.9 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, LSU is expected to be 1.6 points better than Arkansas with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

LSU is sixth among SEC teams with a 24.8 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.2 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model predicts a total win projection of 6.8 games for Arkansas, giving it an 89 percent chance of qualifying for a bowl game this season.

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 6:00 p.m. central
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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