Clemson vs. Virginia score prediction by an experienced football model

No. 10 Clemson looks to extend its winning streak in a matchup against Virginia in Week 8 of college football on Saturday. Let’s check the latest predictions for the match using an expert football model that determines winners and points.

Clemson has won five straight games since the season opener, scored a total of 243 points and is off to a 4-0 start in ACC play. That puts his chances in the College Football Playoff higher than the 12th-ranked offensive lineman in the FBS, who averages 41 points per game.

Virginia has an improved 4-2 overall record this season and is 2-2 in ACC play and ranks 76th in scoring.

What does the analytics project envision for this ACC matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Clemson and Virginia will fare in this Week 8 college football game.

As expected, the Models favor the Tigers over the Cavaliers in this conference tournament.

SP+ predicts Clemson will defeat Virginia by a projected score of 35-18 and win the game by an expected margin of 16.5 points.

The model gives the Tigers a strong 85 percent chance of winning overall.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a win rate of 51.9, after being 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Clemson is the 21.5-point favorite against Virginia.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game as 57.5 points.

And it set the moneyline odds for the overall win at -1600 for Clemson and +900 for Virginia.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

A variety of bettors favor the Tigers over the Cavaliers in this game, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations.

Clemson is receiving 59 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 41 percent of bets have Virginia either pulling off the upset or, more likely, keeping the game within three touchdowns.

Other analysis models also clearly favor the Tigers over the Cavaliers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Clemson is projected to win the game in a majority of 89.1 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Virginia as the expected winner of the remaining 10.9 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Clemson is projected to be 18.9 points better than Virginia on the same field, which is also not enough to cover the spread.

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 44.7 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 10 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Virginia an overall win projection of 5.6 games and a 49.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 12pm Eastern
TV: ACC Network

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection