“TNF” odds, tips, best bets

The Saints host the Broncos on Thursday night in a battle of rookie quarterbacks.

Denver’s Bo Nix faces New Orleans’ Spencer Rattler, who made his NFL debut last week.

This game also marks the return of head coach Sean Payton to face his former team. Payton coached the Saints for 15 years from 2006 to 2021.

The spread for this game has shifted toward Denver as the away favorite due to significant injuries to the home underdogs.

Let’s dive into the matchup and see where the value lies.

Broncos vs Saints odds

When the Broncos have the ball

Nix had a tumultuous start to his rookie season, ranking just 34th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, an all-inclusive statistic measuring passing efficiency.

Denver’s offensive line excelled in pass defense and ranked first in pass block win rate, but the Broncos struggled to find consistent pass-catching options.

Payton hinted that rookies Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele would have more work to do.

The Saints’ defense was impressive early in the season, but it has started to fall apart in recent weeks and has fallen to 14th in DVOA.

A key reason for this was the team’s lack of ability to apply forward pressure.

According to ESPN, the Saints rank 26th in pass-rush win rate and 32nd in run-stop win rate. They also allowed the third-most yards before contact per attempt, according to Fantasy Points Data.

When the Saints have the ball

Rattler had big problems right from the start when he stepped in for the injured Derek Carr. Of 39 quarterbacks with more than 50 dropbacks this season, he ranks last in the EPA+CPOE composite.

New Orleans scored 27 points on 138 plays in a wild environment last week, but it wasn’t an efficient outing; The Saints finished with a 39% early down success rate, ranking 28th in the NFL all season.

Things won’t get any easier for Rattler this week against a Broncos pass defense that ranks seventh in DVOA.

Denver will be without Patrick Surtain II, who suffered a concussion on Sunday, but cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillan are having impressive seasons.

The Broncos, who have the highest blitz rate in the NFL, will rely on their pressure to get home against a New Orleans offensive line that ranks 31st in Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking rating.

The Saints are doing poorly on the interior of their offensive line: Cesar Ruiz is out, Lucas Patrick is questionable and Erik McCoy is on the IR. That could be a big problem against defensive tackle Zach Allen, who leads the position in pass rush win rate.

The Saints are also without wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee), while running back Alvin Kamara is still dealing with multiple ailments.

Betting on the NFL?

Choice between Broncos and Saints

Even if Surtain isn’t active on Thursday, it’s hard to imagine Rattler having much success moving the ball against Denver’s defense.

The Saints are missing all two of their three starters on the interior of their offensive line and their top two wide receivers.

Instead of betting on Nix being the away favorite in prime time, let’s ignore New Orleans’ offense and bet that their team’s total points total is under 17.5.

Best bet: Saints under 17.5 points (-122, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.