Donald Trump overtakes Kamala Harris in 4-point swing: Fox News poll

A recent Fox News poll shows Donald Trump overtaking Kamala Harris by 4 points, shaking up the momentum in the presidential race.

The poll, conducted between Oct. 11 and Oct. 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, shows Trump leading Harris by two points among registered and likely voters, 50 percent to 48 percent, an increase of 4 points over Harris corresponds to a 2-point lead over Trump a month ago.

Although Trump has seen an increase in the polls, his lead is still within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. According to Fox News, Harris is ahead by six points among voters from the seven key battleground states.

The numbers are among the best numbers for Trump in a Fox News poll since he became the Republican nominee. Fox News’ August poll showed the former president gaining just one point.

The shift in Trump’s favor is largely due to a surge in support among white voters, who now support him by 10 points, up from 4 points last month and 6 points in August. He also has record support among voters ages 65 and older (49 percent) and those with a college degree (48 percent). Meanwhile, Harris is enjoying her lowest support since she ran among black voters (67 percent), college graduates (49 percent), voters age 65 and older (47 percent) and white voters with a college degree (46 percent). .

“Overall, the move toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, particularly if he makes gains among college-educated voters,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who runs Fox News polls with Republican Daron Shaw. “However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely depend on which side is more effective at getting its voters to the polls than at persuading them.”

The poll shows two-thirds of Harris and Trump supporters say they are “extremely” motivated to vote. But compared to the vice president’s supporters, a larger share of Trump supporters say they are more likely to vote for him than against Harris. Two-thirds of Harris supporters describe her vote as for her, but a third say she is against Trump. Among Trump supporters, 80 percent say they are more likely to vote for him than against Harris (18 percent).

Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.

Trump has generally seen a shift in his favor in the polls. RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker showed last week that Michigan had tipped in Trump’s favor for the first time since July 29. Nevada and Pennsylvania also went Republican. Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver’s forecast last week showed 19 states had shifted in the former president’s favor.

The polls are still very close, especially in the swing states where the candidates are only one or two points apart. On Wednesday, Silver’s forecast showed for the first time that Donald Trump and Harris now have essentially the same odds of winning in November, with Harris at 50.1 percent compared to Trump’s 49.7 percent.

Harris’ chances of winning the election have fallen by about six percentage points since the end of September, with Trump making gains in 19 states, according to Silver’s forecast.

“The prognosis is really close. After another day of polls showing an essentially undecided race in the battlegrounds of the Midwest, it is now literally 50/50,” Silver wrote on his website.