Maine’s early voting numbers show neither party has a clear advantage

Three weeks before Election Day, Democrats dominated mail-in voting across Maine, but Republicans have a narrower gap in the crucial 2nd Congressional District.

Taken together, these two facts show no clear advantage for either party in the messy Nov. 5 election, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead and a big race in the more conservative half of the state Congress is coming up.

What is the context: It’s no news that Maine Democrats are winning the early voting battle. They do that every year. Republicans struggled to keep up with their mail-in voting machine in the years before and after Trump took over the party.

That was solidified in 2020 when the pandemic pushed people to vote by mail and Trump heavily criticized the method while making false claims that President Joe Biden had stolen the election.

As of Tuesday, Democrats had submitted 47.6 percent of absentee ballot requests statewide and 43 percent in the 2nd District, according to Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’ office. For Republicans, those numbers were 22.2 percent and 26.6 percent.

The big picture: The gap between Democrats and Republicans in the 2nd District, which also includes a major race between U.S. Rep. Jared Golden and state Rep. Austin Theriault, was 8.5 percentage points smaller than in 2020 and only slightly larger than in 2016.

This postal voting data is not a forecasting tool. For example, before the 2018 election, the Democrats had a smaller gap that gave them a golden victory and full control of state politics. But there may be signs of momentum and organization that may come into play by Election Day.

What really happens: Parties have access to much more information than we do, including voter rolls and files that show how many people are voting and what issues may matter to them. The type of people who vote early is just as important as these numbers, but parties typically want their voters to do so because then they can target others.

Republicans doing better in the 2nd District is a result of party registration and their efforts to solidify a third straight Trump victory there. The party has pushed hard for early voting this year, although voters are still far more likely to cast their ballot in person.

What they say: “In CD2 and the pockets of [the liberal 1st Congressional District] We’re very pleased with the numbers,” said Jason Savage, executive director of the Maine Republican Party. “We still have a lot of work to do.”

The Maine Democratic Party noted that a higher share of unregistered voters requested early ballots, including younger voters who were likely to support Harris. In a statement, the party nodded to a higher share of Republicans despite “lies” from Trump and others.

“In Maine, it is not uncommon for voters to cross party lines, and many Republicans have expressed their intention to put country over party this year and vote for Kamala Harris,” a state party spokesperson said.