Analysts agree that swing state polls show important trends ahead of the 2024 presidential election

MINNEAPOLIS – National polls showing how close the race is between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are not key indicators of the election, analysts say.

Instead, you should focus on polls in swing states, since the winner of the presidency is determined not by the popular vote but by the Electoral College.

David Schultz, a professor at Hamline University, says nothing has really changed in national polls for months.

“Ignore all the national polls,” he said. “What really matters is the polls in the swing states, and they are close.”

States like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely decide the election, Schultz said.

Larry Jacobs, a professor at the University of Minnesota, said: “I think people need to be a little more comfortable with consuming polls… I think the most important thing to know is that this race is as close as we are have never seen it. It could be another photo finish like we saw in 2016 and 2020.”

Democratic strategist Abou Amara said the polls are important to both campaigns because they are still making key decisions based on them.

“The polls influence almost every campaign decision,” Amara said. “Where you’re going to campaign, who you’re talking to, what messages you want to convey and when you’re going to do it.”

Republican strategist Amy Koch says the national polls are meaningless.

“Trump was leading in six of the seven battleground states,” she said. “If it stays that way, Trump will win this election.”