Auburn vs. Missouri Football Prediction: What the Analytics Say

SEC football returns this weekend as No. 19 Missouri looks for a conference win at home against Auburn on Saturday in Week 8 of college football. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that will determine the winners.

Auburn has lost three straight games and has yet to win in SEC play, averaging just 16 points in conference games.

Missouri has a 1-1 record in SEC play and a 41-10 loss at Texas A&M that raises significant questions about the team’s future playoff viability.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

As expected, the simulations favor the home team, but by a smaller margin.

Missouri is projected to win the game outright in most 67.9 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the remaining 32.1 percent of sims.

Overall, Missouri emerged victorious in 13,580 simulations of the game, while Auburn won in the other 6,420 predictions.

The index predicts a close game with the home team winning by about a touchdown.

According to the model’s latest projection, Missouri is projected to be 6.7 points better than Auburn with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Missouri is a 4.5-point favorite against Auburn, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 51.5 points.

And it lists the moneyline odds for the overall win for Missouri at -190 and for Auburn at +160.

A large majority of bets assume the home team will take care of business, as shown by the latest spread consensus recommendations.

Missouri gets 71 percent of bettors confident in winning the game and covering the spread.

The other 29 percent of bets assume Missouri will either win the game in an upset or keep the score within the line.

Missouri ranks eighth among SEC teams with a 14.9 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.4 games this season, according to FPI data.

The Index projects Missouri to be 12.7 points better than an average neutral-field team, good for 19th nationally in that category.

This model assumes Auburn will win 4.7 games this season and has a 23.5 percent chance of making the 12-team playoffs.

The Index projects Auburn to be 7.6 points better than an average opponent, ranking 34th among 134 FBS teams and 14th in the SEC.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including past results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. army
24. Michigan
25. marine

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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