Alabama vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analyzes say

One of the SEC’s great football rivalries returns to Rocky Top this weekend when No. 11 Tennessee hosts No. 7 Alabama in Week 8 of college football on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game of the football model that will determine the winners.

Alabama is 5-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play after needing some late-game heroics to hold off South Carolina for a narrow 2-point home win last weekend.

Tennessee needed overtime to get past Florida last week, plays with one of the most dominant defenses in the country and boasts the seventh-ranked rushing attack in the country.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

So far the models are predicting a very close game, with the away team getting a slight nod.

Alabama is projected to win the game outright in most 53.6 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Tennessee as the expected winner in the remaining 46.4 percent of sims.

Overall, Alabama came out on top in 10,720 of the Index’s simulations, while Tennessee edged out the Tide in the game’s other 9,280 predictions.

The index predicts a very close result considering the points range.

According to the model’s latest projection, Alabama is expected to be just 1.2 points better than Tennessee with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Crimson Tide to cover the spread.

That’s because Alabama is the 3-point favorite against Tennessee, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 56.5 points.

And it lists the overall moneyline odds for Alabama at -150 and Tennessee at +130.

A variety of bettors are giving the Vols a better chance against the Tide, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee receives 58 percent of bets on either keeping the game within close range or completely beating Alabama in an upset at home.

The other 42 percent of bets assume the Crimson Tide will win the game and cover the spread.

Alabama is second among SEC teams with a 69.2 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.8 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Tennessee an overall win projection of 9.4 games and a 45.2 percent chance of making the 12-team playoff, ranking fourth in the SEC.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including past results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. army
24. Michigan
25. marine

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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