Latest exercises in Taiwan show how the People’s Liberation Army wants to deter the USA

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched and concluded the Joint Sword-2024B exercise near Taiwan on Monday, with a heavy focus on deterring the United States from intervening in possible battles in the Taiwan Strait.

The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command said on Monday that it had deployed the Liaoning aircraft carrier group to conduct exercises in ship-air cooperation, joint air control and attacks on sea and land targets along with its army, navy, air force and missile forces in the waters and airspace east of Taiwan.

“The exercises aim to test the joint combat capabilities of multiple forces in integrated operations inside and outside the island chain,” said Li Xi, spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command.

He added that the exercises, which will be conducted in the Taiwan Strait and in the north, south and east of the island of Taiwan, are a strong deterrent to the separatist activities of “Taiwan independence” elements and legitimate and necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and the protection of national sovereignty represent national unity.

As of 4:30 p.m., the Taiwan military said the People’s Liberation Army had deployed a total of 125 aircraft, 17 warships and 17 coast guard ships in its exercise on Monday.

Taiwan’s defense ministry said its armed forces were on high alert and maintaining positions at sea and in the air to counter “irrational and provocative behavior” by China.

The exercises came after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said in a speech on Taiwan’s National Day on October 10 that China has no right to represent Taiwan as the Republic of China (ROC) has a 112-year history, while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is only 75 years old.

The US has serious concerns about the People’s Liberation Army’s joint military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan, said Matthew Miller, a US State Department spokesman.

The People’s Republic of China’s response to Lai’s routine annual speech with military provocations was unwarranted and risked escalation, he said.

“We call on the PRC to act with restraint and avoid any further actions that could undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the wider region, which is essential and a matter of concern for regional peace and prosperity is of international importance,” he added. “We continue to monitor the activities of the People’s Republic of China and coordinate with allies and partners on our shared concerns.”

Taiwan’s presidential office called on China to “stop military provocations that undermine regional peace and stability, and stop threatening Taiwan’s democracy and freedom.”

Possibility of territory denial

From May 23 to 25, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command held exercise Joint Sword-2024A after Lai delivered his inaugural address on May 20. Beijing said at the time that there would be more exercises later this year.

Chinese columnists said the PLA’s recent exercises were a big step to advance the reunification of mainland China and Taiwan.

“China wants to build joint combat capabilities that rival those of the United States, which has an overwhelming advantage in its naval and air forces,” Shen Yi, a professor at the Department of International Politics at Fudan University of International Communication, said in a statement Article published by Guancha.cn on Monday.

“Today’s Taiwan issue is a result of previous incidents in which aircraft, cruisers and destroyers of the United States 7th Fleet transited the Taiwan Strait,” he said.

“The blockade of key Taiwanese ports is a newly added mission under exercise Joint Sword 2024B,” he said. “A coast guard ship weighing over 10,000 tons, accompanied by four coast guard units, was in action. It has a larger tonnage than the U.S. Navy’s Ticonderoga-class cruiser and Arleigh Burke-class shield destroyer.”

China’s large coast guard ship refers to a ship with the hull number 2901, which is nicknamed the “monster ship” due to its displacement of 12,000 tons. For comparison, a Ticonderoga-class cruiser has a full-load displacement of 9,600 tons, while an Arleigh Burke-class shield destroyer has 8,300 to 9,700 tons.

Shen said recent military exercises and the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Sept. 25 sent a clear signal to the U.S. that China was building an “area denial” capability that the U.S. could no longer combat. He said it was only a matter of time before American military experts realized this.

Three scenarios

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, said in an August 22 report that there are three scenarios in which the PLA could blockade Taiwan:

1. Comprehensive Kinetic Blockade: In seven days of joint fire exercises around Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army will block entrances to key Taiwanese ports and attack the island’s energy import terminals, power grid and transportation infrastructure. In addition, the island’s undersea internet cables are cut and cyber attacks are launched. It will enforce the blockade with anti-ship and anti-missile cruise missile batteries for several months until Taiwan is willing to negotiate.
2. Mining Blockade: It is a scaled down version of the full-scale kinetic blockade. The PLA will fire a dozen ballistic missiles over and around Taiwan just to intimidate Taiwan and international shipping companies and deter other countries from intervening. Chinese submarines will lay sea mines at the entrances to Taiwan’s major ports. Chinese forces are deployed to blockade key ports. They only open fire when attacked.
3. Limited Blockade: It is largely the same as the second scenario, but lacks mining.

CSIS said the all-out kinetic blockade was believed to be China’s most likely approach, as the other two would severely expose the People’s Liberation Army to escalation by Taiwan or U.S. intervention.

Wang Shichun, a Chinese columnist, noted this in an article on Monday

It is the first time China has launched an exercise aimed at blockading Taiwan’s key ports and areas. This will allow us to board, inspect and seize the ships that deliver U.S. weapons to Taiwan and prevent other countries from sending oil and natural gas ships to the island.

Wang says the Taiwanese government has taken the view that it only needs to resist PLA attacks for a week to give foreign powers time to intervene in the war. But he says the US cannot break the Chinese blockade.

“The CSIS report says that the extent to which Washington and its allies intervene will determine the success or failure of a Chinese blockade,” he continues. “But I would like to say that foreign intervention will not be possible because the initiative now lies with our army.”

Mao Ning, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, made the official statement in a media briefing on Monday:

If the US truly cares about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and regional prosperity, it must adhere to the One China Principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, honor the commitment of its leaders to ” “Taiwan Independence,” stop arming Taiwan, and stop sending false signals to the “Taiwan Independence” separatist forces.

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