Iran’s oil exports collapse due to Israeli threats of attack

According to Oil&Gas, Iranian oil exports fell by around 42 percent in early October amid concerns about Israeli threats of attack against Iranian oil sites.

Data from a tanker tracking firm showed Iran’s oil exports fell to 600,000 barrels of oil per day in the first 10 days of the month, down from the 1.4 million barrels per day on average in recent months.

According to Reuters, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that Iran would “pay” for its attack on Israel on October 1, when Iran fired about 180 rockets. Rumor has it that Israel is considering attacks on Iranian oil sites.

Newsweek Iran’s Petroleum Ministry emailed for comment.

According to CNBC, satellite images recently showed oil tankers leaving the waters around Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil terminal, which some fear could be Israel’s destination.

According to OilPrice.com, Iranian oil exports are expected to remain lower this month, reaching a maximum of 1.35 million barrels per day.

In addition to Iran’s difficulties with oil exports, the United States recently imposed additional sanctions on Iran’s “ghost fleet” of ships and companies in the United Arab Emirates, Liberia, Hong Kong and elsewhere that transport and support oil exports to buyers in Asia on October 11.

These sanctions follow Iran’s attack on Israel on October 1, and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the sanctions would “help deprive Iran of even more financial resources used to support its missile programs, and in support of terrorist groups that threaten the United States, its allies, and other partners.”

Anoush Ehteshami, political scientist and professor of international relations at the School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University, spoke Newsweek about how Iran’s decline in oil exports could affect the U.S. politically and economically.

Ehteshami said: “In terms of the US’s own energy policy, this tends to strengthen Biden’s position. The USA is now the world’s premium producer and, by the way, also exports oil products and oil itself to many countries, including Europe, and of course energy. The less comes from the Persian Gulf, the more dependent the major economies become on the USA. In some respects, Iran’s isolation is due to the lack of increased production by the Saudis and Iraqis and the Marathis will mean increasing demand for US export production.

He further explained that in previous historical cases where Iran has faced oil export crises of this kind, Saudi Arabia has “loosened the taps” and “allowed more oil to enter the market to stabilize prices.” However, that this may not be the case in this case, as Iran may view the action as “pro-American” and therefore against its own diplomatic relations with the country.

Ehteshami noted that Russia, like the United States, could benefit from Iran’s decline in oil exports and that he believes Japan, South Korea, China and India will be the consumers “most concerned about a tightening in international oil prices.” Because they are the ones who are directly dependent on market fluctuations at the international level.”

He continued: “Nevertheless, this is not about Iran itself, but about strengthening Iran’s export capabilities. Because oil prices are volatile and always tend to have a worst-case scenario for the future, one week, one month, three.” It really depends on how the tensions between the US, Iran and Israel in the oil markets be interpreted.

Ehteshami also spoke in detail about the impact of the new US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and, moreover, on the Iranian economy as a whole, emphasizing that they would have a “very serious” impact on the economic situation.

He said: “Iran’s economy is already in ruins because of sanctions, because of incompetent management, because of cronyism and corruption and, frankly, because of a lack of investment by much of the world in infrastructure development and modernization. This is what oil did.” was one of the lifelines, and China in particular was happy to continue buying discounted Iranian oil, but this declined.

Ehteshami attributed China’s falling oil demand from Iran to Russia’s oil exports, emphasizing that if Iran’s oil competitors manage to increase production and meet the demands of the global market, Iran will suffer, and this will have a serious impact on the currency , inflation, imports and the economy will have. the country’s ability to continue to maintain an overall macroeconomic position domestically.”

This decline in oil exports follows Iran’s previous economic peak earlier this year, when Iranian exports reached 1.82 million barrels per day in March, the highest rate in six years, and total exports in the first quarter of this year reached 141.7 million barrels fraud, according to the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

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