Harris or Trump? What the Chinese expect from the US elections

In China, people are following the US election with great interest, but also with some concern. They fear what might happen next at home and abroad, whoever wins the White House.

“None of us want to see a war,” Mr. Xiang says as the music in the park reaches a crescendo and a nearby dancer elegantly twirls his partner.

He came to Ritan Park to learn dance with other seniors.

They regularly gather here, just a few hundred meters from the Beijing residence of the American ambassador to China.

In addition to new dance steps, she is also concerned with the upcoming US election.

It comes at a crucial time between the two superpowers as tensions over Taiwan, trade and international affairs run high.

“I worry that Sino-American relations will become strained,” said Mr. Xiang, who is in his 60s. Peace is what we want, he adds.

A crowd has gathered to listen to this conversation. In a country where it is legal to talk about the U.S. president, most are afraid to give their full name, but criticizing their own leader could get them in trouble.

They say they are worried about war – not just a conflict between Washington and Beijing, but an escalation of current wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

That’s why Mr. Meng, in his 70s, hopes Donald Trump wins the election.

“Although he imposes economic sanctions on China, he does not want to start or wage war. Mr. Biden starts more wars so more normal people don’t like him. It is Mr. Biden who supports the war in Ukraine, and both Russia and Ukraine are suffering great losses from the war,” he said.

Some sisters participate by recording a dance routine for their social media page. “Donald Trump said in the debate that he would end the war in Ukraine 24 hours after taking office,” says one.

“About Harris, I know little about her. We believe she is following the same path as President Biden, who supports the war.”

Their opinions reflect a central message conveyed in Chinese state media.

China has called on the international community to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza while allying with its so-called “Arab brothers” in the Middle East, and has been quick to blame the United States for its unwavering support of Israel.

Regarding Ukraine, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the United Nations that China was playing a “constructive role” as he accused Washington of “exploiting the situation for selfish purposes.”

While most analysts believe Beijing has no favorite in the race for the White House, many would agree that Kamala Harris is an unknown quantity to the Chinese people and the country’s leaders.

However, some believe she will be more stable than Trump when it comes to one of the biggest points of conflict between the US and China – Taiwan.

“I don’t like Trump. I don’t think there is a good future between the US and China – there are too many problems, the global economy and also the Taiwan problem,” says a father of a four-year-old boy in the park on a family day trip.

He fears their differences over Taiwan could ultimately lead to conflict.

“I don’t want it. “I don’t want my son to go into the military,” he says as the boy on the slide begs to be allowed to go again.

China claims the self-governing island of Taiwan as its own and President Xi said “reunification is inevitable” and vowed to retake it by force if necessary.

The US maintains official relations with Beijing and recognizes it as the only Chinese government under its “One China Policy,” but also remains Taiwan’s main international supporter.

Washington is required by law to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons, and Joe Biden has declared that the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily, breaking with a stance known as strategic ambiguity.

Harris hasn’t gone that far yet. Instead, she stated in a recent interview that she is “committed to security and prosperity for all nations.”

Instead, Donald Trump is focused on a deal – not diplomacy. He has asked Taiwan to pay for his protection.

“Taiwan took away our chip business. I mean, how stupid are we? They are immensely rich,” he said in a recent interview. “Taiwan should pay us for defense.”

One of their biggest concerns about the former US president is that he has also made it clear that he plans to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.

This is the last thing many companies in China want right now as the country tries to produce enough goods to pull itself out of the economic downturn.

Ministers in China are brimming with disdain over US-led trade tariffs first imposed by Donald Trump.

President Biden has also imposed tariffs targeting Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels. Beijing sees these steps as an attempt to curb its rise to become a global economic power.

“I don’t think it will benefit the United States to impose tariffs on China,” Mr. Xiang said, echoing the sentiments of many we met. The tariffs would hit U.S. citizens, he added, and increase costs for ordinary people.

While many of the younger generation are patriotic, they also look to the US for trends and culture – and that, perhaps more than any diplomatic mission, also has power.

In the park, Lily and Anna, ages 20 and 22, who get their news from TikTok, echo some of the nationwide messages of pride that Chinese state media is spreading when it comes to this competitive relationship.

“Our country is a very wealthy and powerful country,” they say in their national costumes. They love China, they said, although they also adore the Avengers and especially Captain America.

Taylor Swift is also on her playlists.

Others, like 17-year-old Lucy, hope to study in America one day.

As she rides her bike on an exercise bike newly installed in the park, she dreams of one day, after she graduates, visiting Universal Studios.

Lucy says she’s happy there’s a candidate. “Harris’ candidacy represents an important step forward for gender equality and it is encouraging to see her as a presidential candidate.”

The People’s Republic of China has never had a female leader and currently not a single woman sits on the 24-person team known as the Politburo, made up of the Chinese Communist Party’s top members.

Lucy is also concerned about the intense competition between the two countries and believes that the best way for China and the United States to improve their relations is to have more people-to-people exchanges.

Both sides have promised to work toward this, and yet the number of U.S. students studying in China has fallen to 800 from around 15,000 in 2011.

Xi hopes to open the door to China to 50,000 American students over the next five years. But in a recent interview with the BBC, US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns accused parts of the Chinese government of not taking this promise seriously.

He said security forces or a government department had prevented Chinese citizens from participating in U.S. public diplomacy dozens of times.

On the other hand, Chinese students and academics have reported being unfairly targeted by U.S. border officials.

However, Lucy remains optimistic that she can one day travel to America to promote Chinese culture. And as the music plays nearby, she urges Americans to visit and experience China.

“We may be a bit reserved at times and not as outgoing or extroverted as the Americans, but we are hospitable,” she says as she makes her way to her family.

BBC photos by Xiqing Wang

Leading up to the US election on November 5, BBC correspondents in other parts of the world will be examining what impact the result could have where they are and what people around the world think of this White House election campaign