Giving Away Money: Opening Odds, Analysis and Early Spread Prediction for Alabama – Tennessee

The third Saturday is here.

Given the Tide’s performance over the last ten quarters of play, as well as the recent struggles in Knoxville, one could be forgiven for entering this game with a great deal of trepidation, if not outright concern.

The Tide has played pretty uninspired football since halftime of the Georgia game. But it’s not like the Vols have much reason to be confident either. The offense struggled against the Sooners, they lost completely to Arkansas and were fighting for their lives in last night’s home W game against the exceedingly mediocre Florida Gators.

What does Vegas think about this and what do the numbers actually suggest? Let’s dive in.

This is a bit of a surprise: According to FanDuel Tennessee opens with +1.5 points Outsider in his own field.

All odds are provided by FanDuelwho generously sponsored this post today. Kudos to Fan Duel for this. Follow the link below for current odds and spreads:

What does the data say and why?

After scraping the data, running through three models, and generating a composite, this value is actually pretty close to the predicted margin. And there are several factors and negating strengths that seem to be crucial:

Tennessee home field

On an opponent-adjusted basis, the Volunteers have the fourth-best home field in the SEC over the last five years. Only Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M (in that order) were better. At +6.17 points, the Vols almost score a touchdown just by running out on the checkerboard.

The good news for the Tide is that they are only about 0.28 points below expected road numbers, so at least Alabama isn’t adding to their problems. Still, reaching Neyland 6.45 points behind is brutal.

Hidden Points: Penalties

I think we all remember what happened the last time the tide went to Neyland. It cost Alabama a game and a playoff spot. That doesn’t seem to be the case this season. The Vols and Tide are both heavily penalized teams, drawing between 7.3 and 7.8 hankies per game. And at least in Tennessee’s case, the streaks appear to be fairly even on both sides of the margin, both home and away.

But Tennessee has the biggest advantage of sorts. The Tennessees were designed for fewer yards: The Tide only gets that -13 yard difference for stupid flags and almost half a penalty more. The latter is important because on average, for every +1 an opponent gets punished more, you get about 1.14 points to your column. And for each additional first down there is an additional 0.56 points – so Bama gives away another 1.7 points in the “hidden” points alone.

The other advantage for the Vols is how much their opponents punish themselves. In terms of both yardage and volume, officials seem to be labeling UT’s opponents just as much as the Vols. “You have to call it both ways” nonsense we’ve seen far too often. However, the Tide simply isn’t getting those flags. You can directly point to four points taken off the board due to non-calls in the last three games. This has actually led to one of the SEC’s worst mismatches: Alabama +3 PG penalties and almost 30 yards given up.

The Vols will pull some tissues, as will the Tide. In other words, don’t expect UT to attract nearly as many. And when you correlate the scores, it results in ‘Bama losing another 1.68 points just because of a lack of discipline.

If you keep track at home, Alabama is already facing a deficit of 9.55 hidden points overall.

Get out of each other’s way:

You wouldn’t expect it, but both teams allow a lot of negative plays – both TFL and sacks. And they do it for the same reasons: mobile quarterbacks who hold onto the ball for too long and a fight for survival. Alabama’s pressure brings confusion. The Vols get there with a superior defensive line. Either way, expect some negative plays from and for.

Another area where teams unexpectedly negate each other is third-down conversions. Against teams with winning records, the Vols and Tide were both very strong: just 30.2% allowed by ‘Bama and 32.1% by the Vols.

But if there’s a saving grace here for Bama fans, it’s that the Tide were far better offensively on third down than the SEC. The Vols rank second to last in conversion against top teams: just 34% and a paltry 37% against all teams with winning records. Alabama is almost 40% against the SEC and almost 50% against teams with winning records.

In real terms, this equates to an additional 3.4 drives for the Tide over the Vols and an additional 11.4 points to their tally.

Injuries:

Luckily the tide appears to be mostly healthy. However, Tennessee has faltered. The last two weeks have featured: Best secondary playmaker, best linebacker, two starting WRs and best interior linemen… among many others. It is impossible to determine a priori what impact these losses will have on performance. In fact, we don’t even know if it’s available yet. But it’s something to keep in mind.

Key performance indicators:

The sky isn’t falling yet. No panic. DYK: Alabama’s secondary was rocked. They’ve faced the most passes of anyone in the SEC – and 119th nationally. Teams throw an incredible 35 times per game. Despite this, the secondary has still only given up 8 points in 6 games. And although the Tide faced far harder attacks, it was secondary Despite it The higher the completion percentage allowed, the higher the QBR allowed, the higher the YPA allowed, the more passes defended per game, the more passes broken up per game, and the more negative plays per attempt.

And despite all the hype surrounding the Vols, the offense has been pretty boring in terms of efficiency. It ranks just 53rd overall, 47th in efficiency per game, 47th in explosiveness and 54th in drive efficiency. Alabama’s defense ranks 16th overall in efficiency, 26th in drive efficiency and 24th in burst efficiency. It’s 17th in rush efficiency defense versus the Vols’ 20th rush efficiency offense.

And Where Alabama does have an advantage, it’s a significant one: explosiveness. The Tide almost doubles the Vols here, and there are almost as many plays over 50 yards as the Vols over 25 yards.

Sales:

Alabama was better in the plus-minus column. And that’s a big deal. Each additional +1 corresponds to approximately 4.31 points. Compared to the SEC, “Bama is +1; The Vols are at 0.33 – that doesn’t seem like much, but that’s almost a field goal for ‘Bama (2.87 points).

Here too we see a familiar contrast: UT must lead the field; that’s them. Alabama can do a lot with big plays. But don’t overlook the Tide’s ability to stay on the field with their fantastic 3D conversion rate.

Alabama was still the better team on an opponent-adjusted basis due to stupid penalties, poorly timed turnovers and flashes of genius in conversion defense. On a neutral field, they would be favored by almost double digits.

But this is not a neutral field. Alabama doesn’t play clean games. And the Tide turns it around and has some weird errors on conversions. That makes it much closer than it should be. The Vols will be able to drive up the field just as they will make big plays.

However, what really matters here is who stays on the field most consistently on offense, converts those attacks, and who can then win the battle for turnovers.

Against all warts and wrinkles. Despite all the growing pains and adversity on the road ahead, the numbers Despite it just like Alabama. I sincerely hope that this calculation is correct and that both teams play their “average” game.

I’m just afraid they won’t.

The data says Alabama -5.22… and this time I don’t trust the math at all. Call me a Luddite.

Would you like more of this? I look at the data for (almost) every single game, every single week on my companion site: (Almost) giving away money. Check it out and succeed.

Only five dollars a month, but with inflation that works out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.