Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

A classic SEC football rivalry returns to Rocky Top this weekend when No. 8 Tennessee takes on Florida at home in Week 7 of college football on Saturday. Here’s what to look for in the matchup with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee got off to a slow start and failed to finish with a loss last week against unranked Arkansas, but ranks fourth nationally in both offense and defense and fifth in rushing production. place in FBS.

Florida gave head coach Billy Napier some extra time last week with a win against UCF, a second straight win that followed a dominant SEC debut against Mississippi State.

What can we expect when the Volunteers and Gators face off in this rivalry?

Here’s what to watch for as Florida and Tennessee renew their rivalry with our updated prediction for the game.

1. On the ground. Tennessee is one of the best rushing teams in the country, ranking 5th in the FBS with an average of 267 yards per game. Leadback Dylan Sampson leads the SEC with 12 rushing touchdowns, a big advantage as the passing game has gotten off to an inconsistent start in conference play.

That will be a problem for the Gators, who have struggled to stop the run so far, allowing an average of 173 yards per game on the ground, the second-worst mark in the SEC, while giving up 8 rushing touchdowns, also the second-most in the SEC the league.

2. Fight on the front lines. Tennessee’s defense is strong all around, but it starts at the line, a ferocious unit responsible for 38 tackles for loss, ranked 1st in FBS on third down, 3rd nationally by scoring 4 touchdowns in the red zone and ranks 4th in scoring defense.

It could be challenged by a Florida offensive line that has protected its quarterbacks reasonably well so far this season, allowing just 20 tackles for loss and a whopping 5 sacks so far, both of which are second-best among all SEC teams.

3. Go deep. Tennessee really hasn’t scratched the surface of what quarterback Nico Iamaleava can do with the football. The offense ranks just 79th in the FBS in explosive passing plays, well below what the QB’s potential would suggest. Josh Heupel could rank 126th among 134 FBS teams against a Florida pass defense that allows 23 passes of 20 yards or more this season.

Most analytical models suggest the Volunteers have the edge over the Gators this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Tennessee is projected to win handily in most 87 percent of the game’s most recent computer simulations.

That leaves Florida as the expected winner in the remaining 13 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Tennessee is projected to be 17.3 points better than Florida with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction: What the Analytics Say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Tennessee is a 15-point favorite against Florida.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 56.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -650 for Tennessee and +475 for Florida.

Most bettors are expecting the Vols to face the Gators at home, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations.

A majority of bets – 65 percent – ​​have Tennessee winning the game and covering the spread.

The other 35 percent of bets assume the Gators will either win in an upset or keep the game within reason.

This is a good moment for the Vols offense to show its true colors. It’s easy to beat cupcakes, but the performance against Arkansas last week was worrisome, and the offense averaged just under 20 points in two road SEC games.

Whoever throws the ball for the Gators, be it Graham Mertz or DJ Lagway, could find some throwing routes against the Vols’ younger corners, and that UF vertical is responsible for 20 pass completions of 20 or more yards this season.

But Tennessee’s excellent edge-rushing combination, a unit already responsible for 93 pressures, should slow the Gators’ offensive momentum late in the game and secure them the win.

College football headquarters chooses…

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7pm ET | 6pm CT
TV: ESPN Network

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection