Harris and Trump are virtually in a dead heat in major swing states: poll

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are virtually deadlocked in major swing states that will play a crucial role in the election, according to a new poll from The Hill and Emerson College Polling.

Trump is narrowly ahead of Harris in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania (49 percent to 48 percent); while in Arizona he is ahead 49 percent to 47 percent. Trump’s lead over Harris is within the margin of error of plus or minus three points in these states.

The two candidates are tied at 49 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Harris leads Trump 48 percent to 47 percent in Nevada. The poll’s margin of error is plus/minus 3.1 points in Michigan and plus/minus three points in Wisconsin. In Nevada the margin of error is plus/minus 3.2 points.

The latest poll is a symbol of how close the race has become less than a month after Election Day, although it showed some slight shifts in support.

Harris has lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina since the last Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll was conducted three weeks ago, but gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump, on the other hand, gained one point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina but lost one point in Georgia and Nevada. Harris’ support remained unchanged in Michigan and Nevada, while Trump’s support remained unchanged in Arizona and Wisconsin.

“With the race still deadlocked with just under four weeks left, it is still too close to call key swing states, all within the margin of error,” said Spencer KImball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

In terms of popularity, Harris and Trump have roughly similar ratings. In Georgia, 52 percent of voters said they had a positive view of Harris, while 48 percent said the same about Trump. Fifty-one percent of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin said they had a positive view of Harris, while 48 percent in Michigan and 49 percent in Wisconsin said the same about Trump.

Fifty percent of voters said they had a positive view of Harris in North Carolina and Nevada, while 52 percent said the same about Trump in North Carolina and 45 percent in Nevada. Forty-eight percent of voters in Pennsylvania and Arizona said they viewed Harris favorably, while 50 percent in Pennsylvania and 49 percent in Arizona said the same about Trump.

Further down the ballot, in statewide races in swing states, polls showed Democrats with a lead over their Republican opponents. In the North Carolina governor’s race, which has been rocked by a series of scandals involving Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, Democrat Josh Stein leads Robinson 50 percent to 34 percent.

In the Michigan Senate race, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Ariz.) leads her Republican opponent Mike Rogers 49 percent to 44 percent, while in the Arizona Senate race, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Kari Lake 50 percent to 43 percent lies. In the Nevada Senate race, incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen (D) leads Republican challenger Sam Brown 50 percent to 42 percent.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll was conducted October 5-8, 2024. The sample size in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was 1,000 likely voters, while in Michigan it was 950 likely voters. In Nevada, 900 likely voters were surveyed.

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