Prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying between Venezuela and Argentina

Lionel Messi returns for reigning FIFA champions Argentina as the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying leaders travel to Venezuela hoping to maintain their slim lead at the top of the table.

The Albiceleste are only two points ahead of Colombia in the table, but are missing a number of important regular players this international break. While Messi returns from the ankle injury suffered in the Copa America final, Argentina will be without the likes of Emiliano Martinez, Cristian Romero, Nico Gonzalez and Paulo Dybala, as well as a number of other key players.

The defeat against Colombia in their last game was proof that although Argentina are still the strongest team in the world, they are still beatable on a bad night, especially when they are not at full strength.

Venezuela will take some comfort in this knowledge, but is aware that it still has a Goliath in its sights. Their Copa America was positive as they claimed three wins in the group stage, but since then they have gone winless three times in a row and slipped into the middle of the qualifying standings, especially after the embarrassing 4-0 loss to Bolivia in the last window of play, the La Vinotinto brought an uncertain future.

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Venezuela vs Argentina prediction, odds

• Moneyline Lean: Argentina (-190)
• Result prediction: Venezuela – Argentina 1:2

Although this game could be a little more stressful than usual for the Argentina team, who are missing some key squad members, they should ultimately find a way to be back in the team, especially with the magical difference maker Messi.

After the 4-0 defeat against Bolivia, where they were completely battered in La Paz, it is difficult to know which Venezuela will be playing on any given night and therefore they can hardly be trusted to surprise.

MORE: Lineups, expected starting XI for the Venezuela vs. Argentina game

Facts about the game Venezuela vs. Argentina

• Date: Thursday, October 10, 2024
• Kick-off time: 5:00 p.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. PT
• Location: Estadio Monumental de Maturin (Maturin, Venezuela)
• Referee: Gustavo Tejera (URU)
• Last meeting: Argentina – Venezuela 3-0 (March 25, 2022 | World Cup qualification)

Venezuela vs Argentina best bet

• Choose: Both teams score – Yes
• Opportunities: +120 (BetMGM)

Venezuela was blanked by both Bolivia and Uruguay in the last international window, but not for lack of effort. In the 4-0 defeat against Bolivia, they were in the lead, but still managed to take twelve shots, put three on goal and miss one big chance. Things got better (somehow) against Uruguay, as despite taking 20 shots, six of which were on target, they remained incredibly far off the scoresheet and missed both big chances that came their way.

With Argentina without both injured defender Cristian Romero and suspended goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, who always seems to have an incredible save or two ready every time he puts on the Albiceleste jersey, Venezuela could be prepared themselves to score at least once in a defeat.

Prop bet Venezuela vs Argentina

• Choose: Race up to 6 corners – none of them
• Opportunities: -125 (FanDuel)

One of the best ways to keep Argentina under control is to prevent them from taking too many corners. Not only does a team want to limit the chances of Lionel Messi and Co. to set pieces, ideally this also means that the Albiceleste don’t pour numbers forward.

But Argentina doesn’t need to accumulate many corners to express its attacking pressure. In fact, Argentina have not taken more than four corners in any of their last six games, starting with their sixth corner against Peru in the Copa America group stage.

Neither of these teams have scored a high number of corners in their last meetings against each other. While at +195 it seems tempting not to support either team to get five corners, the extra leeway is worth it when the score is almost even.