Here’s who’s leading the presidential race between Trump and Harris in Georgia

Topline

Former President Donald Trump is on track to overtake Georgia after losing there to President Joe Biden in 2020, but polls show there is a tight race in the state, turning from red to purple during Trump’s term changed, reflecting diversification in the Atlanta suburbs.

Important facts

Cons

Republicans control the Senate, House and governor’s office in Georgia, and nine of the 14 representatives in Congress are Republicans. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp fended off challenges from former Democratic Rep. Stacy Abrams in both 2018 and 2022, increasing his victory in the last election from one point to seven points.

Big number

2.5. According to the FiveThirtyEight poll tracker, Harris is ahead of Trump by as many points nationally, while the RealClearPolitics poll tracker shows her with a lead of 2.1 points.

Important background

Georgia is one of seven swing states that are expected to determine who wins the presidential election. Poll trackers show Harris leading Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Trump leads in North Carolina and Georgia. The most likely path to victory for Harris is through the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which together have 44 electoral votes. If she wins all three and all other non-swing states that Biden won in 2020, she would reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the election. If Trump wins one of the Rust Belt states (most likely Pennsylvania, according to polls) and also wins Georgia and North Carolina, he would likely break the 270 mark.

Further reading

2024 Election Swing State Polls: Harris Leads by 1 Point in 7 Battlegrounds in Latest Poll (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris leads in 4 new national polls – with a virtual tie in swing states (Forbes)