Election “Nostradamus” says the “October surprise” won’t change the prediction that Harris will win

A presidential historian and professor who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 US elections said an “October surprise” would not affect his prediction that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 race.

The American university professor Dr. Allan Lichtman predicted in early September that the Democratic nominee would take home victory next month against her Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump.

Lichtman stood by his prediction Saturday — even if a last-minute scandal involving one of the two candidates breaks out this month, less than 30 days before Election Day on Nov. 5.

“One of the greatest myths in American politics is the October Surprise,” the renowned historian told CNN’s Michael Smerconish. “I never changed my forecast in response to a surprise in October because the keys judged the overall picture of the incumbent government based on its strength and were not influenced by the events of the election campaign.”

The “keys” Lichtman, 77, is talking about are 13 categories by which he assesses the likelihood of each candidate’s ability to win the White House.

In September, he said Harris was ahead in eight of the 13 key areas, while Trump was ahead in three.

And the professor’s comment that the “October Surprise” is a myth has some historical evidence to back it up.

One of the more recent and infamous “October Surprises” occurred a month before the 2016 election, when an “Access Hollywood” tape was leaked to the Washington Post that showed Trump making disturbing and shocking comments about his treatment of women.

“I’m not even waiting. And if you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything… Grab her by the stomach. You can do anything,” Trump told TV host Billy Bush in the 2005 clip about women he wanted to seduce.

Trump still won the election, as Lichtman correctly predicted with his key system.

The scholar, who is a registered Democrat, claims to have correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984 — though not without some caveats that critics have pointed out.

For example, he claimed to have predicted the winner of the 2000 election when he predicted that Al Gore would win, since the Democrat had won the popular vote even if he had not made it to the White House since George W. Bush did Electoral College had won.

But 16 years later, he rejected that logic when he said Trump would win because the Republican lost the popular vote despite becoming president.

Lichtman said he has never changed a prediction in 40 years and doesn’t agree with his prediction of a Harris victory.

Still, election watchers encouraged Americans to go to the polls next month.

“The outcome is yours, so go out and vote,” he said previously.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate, the vice president has a two percentage point lead over Trump in multi-candidate polls.