Bills vs. Texans NFL Week 5 Prediction, Odds and Best Bet

Two of the AFC’s top teams will face off on Sunday when the Buffalo Bills visit the Houston Texans.

Buffalo started strong in its first three games but suffered a crushing loss to Baltimore last week. The Texans rallied from a deficit after a thrilling win over division foe Jacksonville.

Read on for our Bills vs. Texans NFL prediction, odds and best bet for Week 5.

Bills vs Texans Predictions

It’s difficult to handicap this game because it feels balanced. That probably wouldn’t be the case if the game were in Buffalo, but the Texans usually play well at home.

Houston is 2-0 at home this season, and the crowd at NRG Stadium will be the loudest this weekend because of how big this game is. The Bills could be a team that the Texans face in the playoffs, so it’s important to gain some confidence in the regular season.

The Bills have key starters down on offense (WR Khalil Shakir) and defense (DL Ed Oliver and LB Von Miller), so there will be less room for error.

The Texans don’t have the same lead this season, but they don’t need to win by a big margin on Sunday. They may just need to win on the field to get their first ATS win.

There has been a lot of talk about WR Stefon Diggs’ departure from Buffalo. He performed well for the Bills and gave them what they needed. His performances continued to decline last season and it was clear that both sides were unhappy.

Diggs has been good for Houston this season, and you can expect QB CJ Stroud to look at Diggs in the red zone to give Diggs a chance to celebrate against the team he no longer likes.

Diggs’ teammate, WR Nico Collins, has been incredible this season. His 489 receiving yards are 100 more than the second-highest total. He averages an incredible 122 yards per game and has at least 86 yards in every game.

Collins hit 30 balls on 43 targets and seven of his balls went for at least 20 yards. In other words, he has tremendous volume and is always a threat to make a big play.

Look for Collins to continue to thrive in one of Houston’s biggest games.

NFL Week 5 Bills vs. Texans odds

Buffalo (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) was considered the favorite at the start of the week. Later in the week, some sportsbooks rated the Texans (3-1 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) as favorites.

Before placing your bet, pay close attention to the line and choose the sportsbook with the best number for your bet. Caesars Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a 1-point favorite, but FanDuel lists Houston as a 1.5-point favorite.

The over/under of 47 and 47.5 points respectively suggests this will be a high-scoring game.

Moneyline odds analysis Bills vs. Texans

Why Buffalo could be the favorite to win

Best odds: -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook

QB Josh Allen, one of two favorites on the NFL’s MVP odds list, has proven throughout his career that he is a great regular-season quarterback. He’s still cooking this season and has reduced his turnovers. With him under center, the Bills always have a chance.

The Bills will especially need him to be at his best on Sunday since leading WR Khalil Shakir was ruled out. Don’t be surprised if you see Allen taking matters into his own hands in the biggest moments.

Buffalo’s defense had no answers for the Ravens’ running game last week, but there’s no danger of that performance being repeated this week. With RB Joe Mixon out again, Houston doesn’t have the personnel to repeat what Baltimore did with RB Derrick Henry and QB Lamar Jackson.

Since this game won’t be a blowout for the Texans, there’s a strong chance Allen can make some crucial plays. He is definitely capable of doing that.

Why Houston could win as an underdog

Best odds: +100 at Caesars Sportsbook

If you like exciting games, you’ll love what Houston is doing this season. If you are a Texans fan, you will love it more because the Texans win these close games.

Houston opened the season with a 29-27 division win in Indianapolis. The other two victories came at home and were only decided in the final stages.

That’s why you can trust the Texans on Sunday. The Bills are down some key players, so they may not have what it takes to beat Houston. If the game is close, the Texans will be confident as they have already won three close games this season.