Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo faces a strong challenge from Venâncio Mondlane

Mozambique is facing a crucial election that will bring a change in the presidential guard. The era of leaders who forged their careers in the trenches of the War of Independence against Portuguese rule is coming to an end.

For the first time, the once all-powerful Frelimo party is fielding a presidential candidate born after independence – the charismatic 47-year-old Daniel Chapo, who it hopes will rally voters fed up with his 49-year rule have.

“In some places, members of the Frelimo campaign were booed and openly rejected,” political commentator Charles Mangwiro told the BBC.

Mozambique – strategically located on South Africa’s coast and rich in natural resources but plagued by an insurgency in its remote north – will hold presidential, legislative and gubernatorial elections on Wednesday.

President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down at the end of his two terms in office, hoping to hand power to Chapo. His government had to deal with the fallout from the Tuna Bond corruption scandal, which triggered the country’s worst economic crisis.

By comparison, Chapo is a breath of fresh air – drawing large crowds at rallies across the country as he distances himself from the corruption that has plagued Frelimo for much of its rule since independence in 1975.

“Brother Dan is honesty personified… He is the voice of hope we want to embrace… It’s time for change,” read the lyrics of one of his campaign songs.

But human rights activist and journalist Mirna Chitsungo says she doubts whether Chapo can convince all voters that he can change Frelimo.

“If our country is degraded, it is because of corruption. “He faces the challenge of promising to fight this evil while belonging to a party that has perpetuated large-scale corruption,” she told the BBC.

Working in Chapo’s favor is the fact that he is a relative newcomer to the political arena, having only entered government as a district administrator in 2011 and rising to governor of the southern province of Inhambane in 2019, before taking over as Frelimo’s general secretary in May .

But his critics say Frelimo has a backup plan to ensure victory: fraud.

A leading non-governmental organization in Mozambique, the Centro de Integridade Pública, says its research has shown that about 5% of the names on the electoral roll are fake or are so-called “ghost voters” – a figure approaching 900,000.

“The simple fact is that the data was published by the CNE [Central National Elections Commission] “It shows that in some provinces there were 878,868 more registered voters than there are adults eligible to vote, making them ghost voters on the electoral roll,” Mozambican analyst Joe Hanlon told the BBC.

Miguel de Brito of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance notes that “ghost voters” are not evenly distributed across the country – only seven out of 10 key provinces have more registered voters than residents.

For example, a third of all registered people in Gaza province, who normally vote overwhelmingly for Frelimo, are considered “ghost voters.”

It is also the area from which many people travel to South Africa to work every year.

“It has gotten worse, this year we managed to register almost 105% of the eligible voter population nationwide,” Mr De Brito told the BBC.

Both the electoral commission and Frelimo deny any wrongdoing and insist the elections will be free and fair.

Chapo is being challenged by three other candidates:

• Venâncio Mondlane, an independent
• Ossufo Momade from the main opposition party Renamo and
• Lutero Simango, who is leading the election campaign of the third largest party, the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), with a promise to build more factories and reduce the cost of living.

Of the three, Mondlane is the fresh face, vying for the presidency for the first time after splitting from Renamo.

With the slogan “Save Mozambique – this country belongs to us,” the 50-year-old is proving to be a hit, especially in the youth election campaign.

“He [Mondlane] “I use this slogan everywhere and try to explain to young voters that they should be proud to be Mozambican because the conditions are there so that they are not poor or unemployed,” explains Mangwiro.

“He draws large crowds at his campaign rallies, and people are not marched to attend, whether it is raining, cold or sunny.”

Mondlane, a former banker, first made a name for himself when he ran for mayor of the capital Maputo in local elections last year.

Many people believed he had won – and claimed the result was then rigged in favor of the Frelimo candidate.

Mondlane fought this election under the Renamo banner but left the party after 60-year-old Momade refused to make way for him.

Momade became Renamo’s leader after the death of its long-time leader Afonso Dhlakama in 2018.

He is widely credited with signing a peace deal with Nyusi to end a civil war raging between Renamo fighters and government forces.

Momade ran for president in the 2019 election, claiming Nyusi deprived him of victory but remained loyal to the peace agreement.

Although he is confident of winning this time, his chances have been hurt by Mondlane’s entry into the race – a point that Chitsungo, the human rights activist, made when she said Mondlane was viewed by many Renamo voters as a “young man with that.” becomes spirit of Dhlakama”.

“It is as if we are holding elections with a resurrected Dhlakama, a rejuvenated Dhlakama. So we have this novelty,” she emphasized.

Chapo hopes the Renamo vote will be split between the two men, improving his chances of victory.

In a sign of his determination to win, Chapo traveled to neighboring South Africa to raise funds for his campaign and held a banquet in an upscale suburb of Johannesburg.

He also reached out to ordinary Mozambicans in the city, urging them to cast their votes for him at the embassy, ​​where they could register to vote earlier this year.

“This is a candidacy for renewal,” he told the crowd. “This is a unique opportunity to make a difference almost 50 years after independence.”

Mondlane also took his campaign to Johannesburg and visited a fresh produce market run by Mozambicans in the city.

“I will solve the problems that caused you to leave Mozambique,” ​​he said.

The violence in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, where jihadist attacks have occurred since 2017 that have brought the lucrative liquefied natural gas projects there to a standstill, was not a major election issue.

Rwandan and South African troops deployed several years ago to fight the insurgents are still on the ground for now – although Ziyanda Stuurman of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group says there has been an “increase in the frequency and severity of insurgent attacks.” since January.”

Most analysts agree that the biggest challenge for any new president will be creating economic opportunities and jobs in a country where 62% of the population lives in extreme poverty, earning less than $1.90 ( £1.45) per day.

However, the election campaign is still open as candidates and parties hold their final campaign events on Sunday.

Mangwiro, the political analyst, declines to bet on who will win on Wednesday, saying: “It’s too close to make a decision.”