ALDS tips, odds, best bets

It’s crazy to think that a year ago the Royals finished with 106 losses while now they’re challenging the top-seeded Yankees in their first ALDS game since 2015.

I admit that I underestimated Kansas City all year long.

What makes the Royals dangerous is the fact that, aside from the mighty Bobby Witt Jr., there’s really no way to prepare for this quietly adaptable offense while the pitching depth shines through when it matters most.

Kansas City’s 2-0 win over the Orioles in the AL Wild Card Series was an initial pitching exercise followed by textbook bullpen management – on both sides.

The difference was who could jump forward first and defend the lead.

The Yankees are superior to the O’s in terms of hitting power, but not by a large margin.

Michael Wacha will be the first of this rotation to face the game’s two best contact hitters in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto; His Statcast metrics show he’s fit for the job.

Wacha suppressed hard-hit balls (95 mph exit velocity or greater) to a rate of 32.5, which placed him in the top 8 percentile of pitchers.

The longtime journeyman did not start against the Yankees in his first season as a Royal.

Over the course of his career, he has posted a mediocre 3.38 pitching rating in 32²/₃ innings at Yankee Stadium.

Gerrit Cole also didn’t see the Royals this year.

He’s 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 52 innings against them, but numbers aside, every year the reigning AL Cy Young winner’s $324 million contract is passed on is an hourglass to prove yourself in the playoffs.

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His velocity overall declined a bit in 2024, but he enters the playoffs with momentum after securing two wins in two starts for a 0.57 ERA, including a complete-game performance.

As aggressive as this Yankees lineup can be, it has proven it can be deceived by hot pitching in tough times this year.

With Wacha and Cole expecting to compete long enough, this rested Royals bullpen, which ranked 4th overall with a 3.76 FIP, can continue to produce football results.

The piece: Yankees-Royals Game 1, under 7.5 (FanDuel, +100).

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Sean Stangedi covers the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses primarily on decisions that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.