How costly was the Iranian missile attack for Israel?

One of the concepts that has emerged from military and public discourse since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war is “rocket economics.” It’s not enough to have the best rocket or bomb; You must also have a supply large enough to meet your needs and the ability to replenish this supply in the event of a prolonged war. Even when developing weapons that can fly at speeds of thousands of miles per hour with warheads and sophisticated sensors, money always comes down to it.

Israel’s State Commission of Inquiry into the War must also address this issue, as before October 7, in addition to political and intelligence failures, there were significant deficiencies in adequately equipping the Israeli Air Force, armored units and artillery with sufficient ammunition.

The unwritten rule is that the intercepting missile always costs more than the missile being intercepted. Defense is more expensive than attack. This was the case with the Patriot system against Scud missiles in the 1991 Gulf War, and since 2011 it has been the case with the Iron Dome interceptors against Hamas and Hezbollah missiles.

This is the equation that the Iron Beam laser interception system currently being developed by the Department of Defense and Rafael seeks to change. The first operational laser systems are expected to be delivered to the IDF by the end of 2025. Instead of using a stealth missile that costs about $100,000, the interception cost is reduced to just a few dollars per shot, which is essentially the cost of electricity. Even when you factor in maintenance and wear and tear costs, this represents a significant economic and safety revolution.

According to IDF reports, Iran fired 181 ballistic missiles at Israel last Tuesday, and the IDF’s air defense system intercepted most of them. According to American reports, the United States intercepted twelve missiles with its missile destroyers.

The remains of a ballistic missile fired by Iran that landed in Israel on October 1, 2024 (Source: VIA MAARIV ONLINE)

That means the Iranians fired about 200 missiles, some of which crashed along the way in Iran and Iraq. A ballistic missile with a range of 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers is expensive. Estimates suggest that each missile cost the Iranians at least $1 million to produce, and they used advanced models such as the Emad and Kheibar and even the Fattah-1, which is claimed to be hypersonic capable – meaning at high speed Can fly and maneuver at speed The speed exceeds five times the speed of sound – in an attempt to deceive the air defense systems that try to intercept them.

Around $200 million is a hefty sum for a rocket fire and certainly not an insignificant part of Iran’s missile inventory. From Tehran’s perspective, however, this represents a relatively small hit to its finances.

According to a Reuters report, Iran has managed to export $35 billion worth of oil annually despite international sanctions. This missile barrage cost them the equivalent of just two days of exports – not something they would do every day, but also not an expense the country would struggle to afford every few months, especially when it neglects other branches of the military in missile technology invest.

Israel’s use of the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 air defense systems

In response to the Iranian missiles, the Israeli Air Force launched Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 missiles manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries. The arrows are not fired against missiles that the system has identified as targeting uninhabited or militarily insignificant areas.

However, this time the Iranians used more precise missiles, which likely improved their accuracy compared to previous attempts and required more interceptions.

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The IDF has not disclosed how many Arrow missiles were deployed or whether it also required the use of David’s Sling or Iron Dome to intercept larger fragments or parts of Iranian missiles that are not warheads but could still cause secondary damage.

The older Arrow-2 rocket, which intercepts its target tens of kilometers into the atmosphere, costs about $3 million. The newer Arrow-3 missile, which intercepts ballistic missiles in space at greater distances from Israel’s borders, costs around $2 million.

But even if about 180 Arrow missiles were deployed, using both types, the interception cost would be about $450 million – more than double the cost of the Iranian missile barrage.

According to the World Bank, Israel’s GDP per capita is more than twice that of Iran: $50,000 compared to $20,000 in 2022. However, Israel is a country of 10 million people, while Iran has 90 has millions. Most of the funding for the procurement of the Arrow interceptor came from the United States, which has invested around $4 billion in the project so far.

As long as the US is willing to continue funding Israel’s air defense systems, as is the case with Iron Dome and David’s Sling, the main constraint will be the pace of production at Israel Aerospace Industries and Rafael, as well as the procurement of essential components.

The Biden administration has initiated and approved by Congress a $14.1 billion special budget since the outbreak of war, of which more than $4 billion is earmarked to replenish the interceptor stockpile and promote the development and procurement of the laser system . However, the laser will not be powerful enough to intercept ballistic missiles in the near future, and further U.S. investment depends on relations between the two nations. When it comes to air defense, without American funding it would be a heavy burden on the defense budget.

As Israel considers its response to the recent Iranian attack, it is important to remember that we can significantly undermine Tehran’s ability to acquire additional missiles, either through military measures that destroy its production facilities or through economic measures , targeting its oil production and export systems that fund these efforts.

Regardless, it is unclear why Israel’s response is delayed and why the government is not using the holiday season, when most Israelis are not working or in school and are near bomb shelters, to initiate this response and prepare for the possible to prepare for Iranian retaliation that could follow.

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