Michigan vs. Washington score prediction by an expert football model

A revamped Big Ten football matchup brought to us by conference realignment is also a rematch of the national title game, as No. 10 Michigan heads to Washington on the road in Week 6 of college football on Saturday. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the game from the expert model that will determine the winners.

Michigan is 4-1 overall with a home loss to Texas but a solid 2-0 in Big Ten play behind strong defense and a good ground game, if not much passing attack, and ranks 130th out of 134 in putting FBS teams ball in the air.

Both teams are a shadow of their former self when they met in the CFP national championship game last year. Both teams lost star quarterbacks and other key offensive personnel, not to mention their head coaches.

What do the experts think of this Big Ten matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Michigan and Washington will fare on the same field in this Week 6 college football game.

So far the simulations are on the side of the home team against the defending champions, but by a narrow majority.

SP+ predicts Washington will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 24-23, winning the game by an expected margin of just 0.7 points.

The model gives the Huskies a slight edge, 52 percent for the overall win.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a win ratio of 53.8.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Washington is a 2.5-point favorite against Michigan.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 41.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -134 for Washington and +112 for Michigan.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Other analytical models also predict the Huskies will defeat the Wolverines.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Washington is projected to win the game in a majority of 57.9 percent of recent computer simulations.

That leaves Michigan as the expected winner in the other 42.1 percent of sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Washington is expected to be just 2.9 points better than Michigan with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

According to the latest spread consensus recommendations, bettors have a different view of the game.

About 62 percent of bets predict Michigan will upset Washington or keep the game under 2.5 points.

And the other 38 percent of bets suggest the Huskies will win the game and cover the spread.

Michigan is sixth among Big Ten teams with an 8.9 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.4 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Washington a total win projection of 5.8 games and a 56.1 percent chance of qualifying for the bowl.

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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