Georgia vs. Auburn score prediction by an experienced football model

The Deep South’s oldest rivalry begins this weekend between the Hedges as No. 5 Georgia looks to rebound from its first loss in its Week 6 college football matchup against Auburn on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions from the expert model that determines the winners.

Georgia suffered its first regular season loss since the 2020 season with a 41-34 loss at Alabama, but it could have been much worse after the defense squandered an early 28-0 lead, and bigger tests lie ahead before the national title contenders.

Auburn has kept things close in a rivalry that was tied between the schools just a decade ago, but has come up short in its last seven games against the Bulldogs and is 0-2 in SEC play after losses to Arkansas there and Oklahoma, both at home.

What do the experts say about this year’s edition of the rivalry?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Georgia and Auburn will fare on the same field in this Week 6 college football game.

As expected, the simulations are clearly in favor of the Bulldogs against the Tigers this week.

SP+ predicts Georgia will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 34-20 and win the game by an expected margin of 13.5 points.

The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 80 percent of the overall win.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a win ratio of 53.8.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Georgia is a 24-point favorite against Auburn.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 52.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -2500 for Georgia and +1200 for Auburn.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Other analysis models also assume that the Bulldogs will maintain their serve against the Tigers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Georgia is expected to win in most 91.2 percent of recent computer simulations.

That leaves Auburn as the expected winner in the other 8.8 percent of sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Georgia is projected to be 21.1 points better than Auburn with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

That still wouldn’t be enough for the Bulldogs to cover the spread this week.

A slim majority of bets – 54 percent – ​​expect Georgia to win the game and cover the difference.

The other 46 percent of bets assume Auburn will keep the game within the 24-point line.

Georgia is fourth among SEC teams with a 71.7 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.2 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Auburn a total win projection of 4.8 games and a 26.3 percent chance of making a bowl game.

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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