Hillary Clinton warns Kamala Harris of an 'October surprise'

The campaigns of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump can’t be too relaxed in the final weeks before the presidential election. An “October surprise” could be just around the corner.

Trump’s 2016 opponent, Hillary Clinton, knows all too well how an October surprise – a big, unexpected piece of news about a candidate – can derail a campaign in its final stages and ultimately influence the outcome of an election. Her email came less than a month before Election Day, when Wikileaks began publishing her emails.

She is now warning Harris not to expect a surprise of her own in October.

“I expect something will happen in October, as it always does,” Clinton said in a recent interview with PBS. “…There will be a concerted effort to distort and distort Kamala Harris who she is, what she stands for, what she has done.”

Clinton said she was particularly concerned about disinformation on social media being spread by Russia, Iran and China, as well as pro-Trump media organizations that might pick up fabricated stories.

“I expect there will be a full court press in October. The digital airwaves will be filled.”

In the age of the 24/7 news cycle, stories about the presidential candidates can break at any time. But surprises in October are not a modern phenomenon. Here’s how they’ve influenced elections in the past.

1840: Allegations of electoral fraud

Although the term wasn’t coined until 1980, the original surprise came in October during the 1840 U.S. presidential election, according to POLITICO.

President Martin Van Buren attempted to pull off a surprise against the Whig Party in October when he accused senior party officials of a “most astonishing and abominable fraud” in which they paid Pennsylvania voters to travel to New York and in the 1838 state election to cast fraudulent ballots.

Federal prosecutors affiliated with Van Buren’s Democratic Party announced the charges against Whig politicians in mid-October. Van Buren hoped the timing of the indictment would swing the election in his favor.

Unfortunately for the Democrat, voters didn’t seem to care. Van Buren lost the election to Whig member William Henry Harrison.

1972: Nixon prematurely announces a peace agreement with Vietnam

During his first presidential campaign, Richard Nixon promised to end the Vietnam War. At the end of his first term, the conflict was still raging. But that didn’t stop Nixon and Henry Kissinger, his national security adviser, from prematurely announcing a peace agreement between the United States and Vietnam.

A month before the presidential election, North Vietnamese negotiators agreed to U.S. peace terms. But on October 22nd the talks collapsed. Nevertheless, Kissinger attended a scheduled press conference on October 26 and announced that “peace was near.”

The false peace declaration pushed Nixon further ahead in the polls. He finally won the election twelve days later, securing more than 60% of the popular vote. The Vietnam War continued for more than two years after Kissinger’s announcement.

2008: Market crash causes McCain to stumble

Not all October surprises are intentional or based on deception. In the case of the 2008 race, Republican John McCain was injured by the stock market crash.

The impact of the Great Recession was felt by the American public in October 2008, when the stock market collapsed and the unemployment rate in the United States reached its highest level in 14 years.

The financial crisis put McCain’s candidacy – and his reliability – on even more shaky ground. In an August 2008 interview with POLITICO, McCain couldn’t remember how many houses he owned. A month later, as CBS News reported, McCain declared that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.”

The public disagreed. Democratic candidate Barack Obama seized on McCain’s gaffes, calling him out of touch with everyday Americans. Obama won with almost 53% of the vote.

Melissa Cruz is an elections consultant who focuses on voter access issues for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at [email protected] or on X, formerly Twitter, @MelissaWrites22.

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Hillary Clinton warns Kamala Harris of an ‘October surprise’

1840: Allegations of electoral fraud

1972: Nixon prematurely announces a peace agreement with Vietnam

2008: Market crash causes McCain to stumble

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Hillary Clinton warns Kamala Harris of an ‘October surprise’

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