Does Iran want war? Following the recent Israeli attack, here’s what could happen: National

Iran’s direct attack on Israel this week has renewed fears of a larger war in the Middle East – a war that could now directly involve two of the region’s best-armed nations.

Israel and the United States have warned of “consequences” for Iran after it fired at least 180 ballistic missiles into Israel. The barrage was largely intercepted by Israel’s vast air defense system and U.S. naval destroyers.

It remains unclear what consequences this will have. But Iran has said any response from Israel would be met with “stronger and more powerful” retaliation in kind.

That raises further questions about where the parable is headed — and whether Iran is prepared for what happens if its next attack on Israel actually goes through and hits an Israeli population center.

“You should expect a very strong reaction, not only from Israel but also from the United States. And Iran knows this,” said Hagar Chemali, a counterterrorism expert and former White House National Security Council director for Lebanon and Syria.

Iran has long supported the various militant groups currently fighting with Israel: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and more recently the Houthis in Yemen, as well as various other proxies in Syria and Iraq.

Many of these and other groups have been designated as terrorist organizations by Canada, the United States and other allies, as has the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Everyone is against Israel’s existence in the Middle East.

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Since Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which was triggered by the Israeli military offensive in Gaza, Iran has supported proxy attacks – such as Hezbollah’s cross-border rocket attacks and Houthis’ attacks on ships in the Red Sea – that show solidarity with Hamas, while avoiding taking direct action against Israel itself.

However, this cautious approach is becoming increasingly difficult as Israel targets Iranian assets in the region due to this proxy support and within Iran itself.

In April, an Israeli attack hit the Iranian consular compound in Damascus, Syria, killing more than a dozen people, including the IRGC’s top commander, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and his deputy.

The attack led to Iran’s first direct attack on Israel later that month, a barrage of drones and missiles that were either intercepted or failed to reach their targets. A seven-year-old girl in Israel was seriously injured by shrapnel, and other civilians suffered minor injuries.

Since then, Israel has only become bolder. In July, an airstrike in the heart of Tehran killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh.

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“The Israelis basically told Iran, ‘Listen, we don’t want to play this game.’ We see you as the mother ship (for these proxy groups),” said Alex Vatenka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

“Iran is essentially backed into a corner.”

Back-to-back mass electronic device explosions in Lebanon last month killed hundreds of people, including Hezbollah militants. Lebanese officials and several U.S. media reports citing American officials say the attacks were an operation by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad and the Israeli military.

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Last weekend, an airstrike on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut killed the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah – one of the most powerful figures in Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and US interests in the Middle East. Since then, more Hezbollah commanders have been killed.

Iran vowed revenge, which apparently took place on Tuesday.

The Pentagon said Tuesday’s attack on Israel was “twice the size” of the April barrage and involved more advanced ballistic missiles that were harder to intercept.

According to the US intelligence director, Iran has the largest number of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.

These missiles deliver warheads containing either conventional explosives or possibly biological, chemical or nuclear munitions over varying distances and speeds depending on the missile type.

Estimates of these ranges vary. The Arms Control Association, a Washington-based non-governmental organization, says Iran’s ballistic missiles have a range of up to 1,000 km, but other missiles under development can reach targets up to 2,500 km away. Iranian state media claims these long-range missiles are already available.

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Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa in the 1990s banning the development and use of nuclear weapons.

But Iran’s intelligence minister has warned that attitude could change if the country is “backed into a corner,” and there are fears in the international community that Iran could still use its nuclear program to create one relatively quickly Manufacture weapon.

Israel is also widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, but there is no concrete evidence and the country has neither acknowledged nor denied their existence.

Vatenka says the Iranian air force is quite weak with an aging fleet and that its missile program and regional proxies are the two main methods of attack against Israel.

But people in Iran say the country has long been committed to expanding its defenses since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, which devastated Iranian society and led to widespread use of chemical warfare by Iraqis under Saddam Hussein concentrated.

“The most important thing is to survive in this region,” said Hamidreza Gholamzadeh, secretary general of the Asian Mayors Forum and director of the Tehran-based think tank House of Diplomacy.

“Iran is therefore very well equipped and ready to protect this red line, this serious red line of its security and stability.”

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Gholamzadeh added that the Iran-Iraq war also prepared the Iranian people for the possibility of direct conflict with Israel.

“Even if this happens and enormous damage is inflicted on Iran, the situation would not be worse than… back then,” he said. “And we survived that time.”

Iran itself has long enjoyed beneficial relations with Russia and China, jointly opposing U.S.-led Western alliances. But in the Middle East it is relatively isolated.

Vatenka said other Arab countries have no plans to side with non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas, which also threaten their own monarchies. And although Iran has provided Russia with drones and other material for Moscow’s war against Ukraine, Iran should not expect Russia to return the favor.

“I really can’t name a single country that I can tell you with certainty right now that will come to Iran’s aid,” he said. “Iran is alone in many ways.”

Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Qatar on Wednesday, a country that has long acted as a mediator in regional disputes, including ceasefire talks in Gaza. But Gholamzadeh said Iran is focused on ensuring that Arab countries do not support Israel in the next phase of the conflict and pressure the United States and other Western allies to withdraw.

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Despite the Iranian regime’s weak reputation at home – most recently in the mass protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini – and economic woes caused by crippling sanctions, Tuesday’s attack on Israel was greeted with cheers in the streets of Tehran.

These rallies were fueled by the Iranian people’s deep hatred of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, as well as national pride, which, according to Gholamzadeh, outweighs any domestic issues.

“There are a lot of people who are unhappy with the bad economy,” he said. “There are many people who are against the hijab. But they are serious about defending their own country.”

– with additional files from Associated Press and Reuters