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Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, ALDS playoff scouting report

By Hudson Brooklyn
Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, ALDS playoff scouting report

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The Detroit Tigers’ “revenge tour,” so to speak, continues with a second straight playoff series against a team they lost their regular season series to.

It was a win for the Astros on Wednesday, capped off with a win in Game 2 in Houston after losing 4-2 in the regular season. That sends the Tigers on to Cleveland to face the AL Central champion Guardians in the ALDS (beginning Saturday) after the Guardians won seven of the 13 games between the teams during the season.

Of course, the Tigers team that beat the Astros was much different than the team that last faced Houston in June. But when facing a divisional opponent… surely the Guardians have recent experience with the Tigers?

THIS TEAM: Andy Ibanez plays hero for the Detroit Tigers in a stunning Game 2, defeating the Astros 5-2

Not quite: The Guardians and Tigers last faced each other on July 30 – a few hours after the trade deadline, Detroit traded Jack Flaherty and several other veterans. Soon after, the much younger Tigers began their epic 31-13 victory to reach the playoffs.

So let’s take a look at how the two teams perform position by position now.

(Tigers players listed first.)

C: Jake Rogers vs. Bo Naylor

Rogers had a productive August (.725 OPS thanks to eight extra-base hits), followed by a tough September (.510 OPS). Naylor the Younger had a productive August (.729 OPS thanks to four home runs), followed by a tough September (.509 OPS). If we have to choose one, we’ll go with Rogers, who had 13 defensive run saves, ranking fifth among all catchers, ahead of Naylor, whose 11 DRS (in nearly 140 more innings) ranked sixth. Edge: Tiger.

1B: Spencer Torkelson vs. Josh Naylor

Naylor the Elder had a breakout season with 31 home runs, 108 RBIs and just 105 strikeouts in 563 at-bats. Tork knows how fleeting 31-homer seasons can be, although his six homers in 133 at-bats since returning from Triple-A on Aug. 13 equate to 25 homers over 560 ABs. Of course, his 49 strikeouts over that same period are on a pace of 206 strikeouts over a full season. Yikes. Edge: Guardian.

2B: Colt Keith vs. Andres Giménez

Another position where the bats aren’t that far apart – Giménez’s .638 OPS is the worst of his five seasons, while Keith’s .639 in his rookie season is represented by a line of .322/.404/.644 in the July was hugely improved. But the gloves? Oof. Giménez is the two-time reigning AL Gold Glove winner and posted an AL-best 20 DRS this season. Keith, in the meantime… wait, keep scrolling… still scrolling… Ah, Keith’s minus-8 was 47 among AL second basemen. Edge: Guardian.

3B: Matt Vierling vs. Jose Ramirez

All credit goes to Vierling for his breakout season, defensive versatility and (sort of) experienced leadership, but Ramírez has six All-Star nominations in the last seven full seasons (and finished second for AL MVP in the pandemic-shortened 2020 ) and fell one double and one homer shy of the second MLB season with 40 doubles, 40 homers and 40 steals. Oh, and no active major league player has more homers against the Tigers than Ramírez, with 33. Edge: Guardian.

SS: Trey Sweeney vs. Brayan Rocchio

Consider Rocchio’s .614 OPS – including a 4-for-29 mark in all 13 games against the Tigers (one of only two Guardians to appear in every game of the season series) – and 10 DRS (third among AL shortstops). , we begin to suspect that the Guardians are of a certain type. Sweeney also seems to fit that mold, perhaps with a little more power – his four home runs in just 36 games account for half of Rocchio’s season total. Edge: Guardian.

LF: Riley Greene vs. Steven Kwan

Both made the AL All-Star squad, both missed about three weeks due to injuries, and both are capable of powering their respective offenses when they’re hot. It’s tempting to say that Kwan has suffered a slump since returning on June 2 (.262/.348/.394), but that’s only compared to the first two months of his season, in which he hit .353 11 walks and 11 strikeouts reached 32 games. Edge: Press.

CF: Parker Meadows vs. Lane Thomas

All welcome the late season additions! Meadows, of course, fueled the Tigers’ final push with an .840 OPS and outstanding defense since returning from Illinois on August 3rd. Thomas, on the other hand, was a trade deadline addition whose average, but not his hitting power, declined after coming from the Nationals. Edge: Tiger.

RF: Wenceel Pérez vs. Will Brennan/Jhonkensy Noel

Pérez’s status as a switch-hitter – albeit one with an OPS more than 100 points higher against right-handers – has kept him in the lineup, despite a season in which he has failed to live up to what he promised in April with his ridiculous 1.003 OPS . The Guardians, meanwhile, have put together a near-perfect platoon, with 26-year-old Brennan posting a .734 OPS against righties and 23-year-old rookie Noel posting a .968 OPS against lefties. Edge: Guardian.

DH: Kerry Carpenter vs. Kyle Manzardo

Manzardo – a top-60 prospect entering the season according to MLB Pipeline – did not impress in his 30 games in the first half. But since returning to the majors on September 1st, he has a .270/.333/.540 slash line in 69 plate appearances. Carpenter, meanwhile, returned from Illinois on August 13th and slashed .286/.349/.954 to finish the year. Edge: Tiger.

bank

The Guardians’ OPS from their reserves is .626, almost 40 points lower than the Tigers’. But Cleveland’s bench got a little bigger with the promotion of Manzardo, who pushed Fry to the bench after seemingly coming out of nowhere to earn an All-Star berth this year with an .854 OPS in the first half. Then again, Fry posted a .208/.270/.446 slash line with just eight walks in 112 plate appearances in August and September, so maybe that’s not all that helpful after all. Edge: Tiger.

rotation

The best news for the Tigers: They could start Tarik Skubal twice in this series – in Games 2 and 5 – if they need him; In his July 22 start in Cleveland, he held the Guardians to one run (albeit on 10 hits) over seven innings. Tanner Bibee is the nominal ace of the Guardians; He had a 3.50 ERA in three starts in July against the Tigers. After him, the Guardians will rely on 33-year-old Matthew Boyd (a former Tiger) and 36-year-old Alex Cobb, an oft-injured duo who combined for a 2.73 ERA… in 11 starts. Edge: Tiger.

Bullpen

The Guardians’ relievers led the majors with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.051, while the Tigers’ relievers ranked fifth in ERA (3.55) and second in WHIP (1.135). The comparison is balanced closer when comparing stats since the teams’ last game against each other: The Tigers relievers had a 2.71 ERA over 286 innings, both tops in the majors, while the Guardians were third in ERA (2.76) and ninth in innings pitched (218⅓ ) were. Oh, did someone say “closer”? – Cleveland has a slight edge here, as Cleveland All-Star Emmanuel Clase is having a top-notch season (0.61 ERA, 66,000 in 74 1/3 innings) and Tigers finisher Jason Foley has about once per during the year Had a shaky performance last week last month. Edge: Guardian.

Manager: AJ Hinch vs Stephen Vogt

It’s another first-year manager as an opponent for Hinch. But while the Astros’ Joe Espada spent more than a decade as a big league coach, Vogt has much less experience in the dugout – the 39-year-old former catcher played in the majors just two seasons ago, graduating from the big leagues -70-game career for the Athletics in 2022. Hinch is, of course, a master of the platoon, pinch-hitters and pitching chaos, skills he has demonstrated in the two months since the last showdown. Edge: Tiger.

forecast

This match is closer than it seems based on the seeding. We have set up the teams so that they each advance to six categories. The regular season series backed that up – the Guardians won seven of 13 games…but five of those wins came by one run, and two came in extra innings. And here’s where the Guardians will have the edge, even if Skubal starts Game 5: Cleveland prevails at Progressive Field and leaves the Tigers vowing to win the AL Central next year. The choice: Guardians in 5.

Contact Ryan Ford at [email protected]. Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, you know?) @theford. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers Newsletter.

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