The “Hot Take” prediction for Jalen Johnson could prove costly for the Hawks

One, if not the biggest, remaining question mark for the Atlanta Hawks is Jalen Johnson’s looming contract situation.

The longer the Hawks wait, the higher Johnson’s final number could go.

He made a significant leap last season but was cut short by injuries. Johnson is now healthy and Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus made a “Hot Take” prediction that the youngster will live up to the promise he showed last season.

“The Atlanta Hawks face a big decision before the season with forward Jalen Johnson eligible for an extension. The team may wait until he is a restricted free agent next season, but he is primed for a big season,” Pincus wrote on Sept. 26. “Johnson went from 5.6 points per game in 2022-23 to 16.0 last season. That trend will continue as he moves into the 20-point scorer category and becomes the Hawks’ best frontcourt player along with guard Trae Young.

“For his efforts, Johnson will receive the NBA’s Most Improved Player award and a significant raise (perhaps the Hawks should make a deal before he blows up any further).”

Johnson was a contender, if not favorite, for the award in 2023-24 before injuries struck.

It’s not that paying Johnson would be a negative. He has the physical profile and skill set of a player that teams around the league covet right now. He has also shown the kind of work ethic that gives him confidence that he will continue to improve.

“I expected it because I knew the work I put in,” Johnson told reporters on media day. “None of this came as a surprise to me, just knowing what I’m capable of. I won’t reveal all the points and so on. A lot of it just comes from the offense and is part of the game. It just felt good to go out there and show what I was capable of; At least you know part of it.

“I’m looking forward to continuing to build and get better this year. Just keep proving to people.”

At 22 years old and with everything he’s already shown, Johnson is only scratching the surface of what he’s capable of. However, there is one major caveat. Everything Johnson showed came in stages.

And while some of them have been longer than others, he needs to prove he’s a consistent contributor on the floor, and that starts with staying on the floor.

Johnson can also help by taking a step forward defensively, as Hawks head coach Quin Snyder said.

“I find [I can improve and make an impact on] Defense,” Johnson said. “I am ready to take on these challenges. I understand that defense is more of a mindset thing. The offensive end comes easy. But on defense you just have to hold on and be ready to take on those challenges, especially guarding the forwards every night.

“I’m looking forward to that. Coach will hold me accountable, my teammates will hold me accountable and I will hold myself accountable on defense this year.”

Conversations about Johnson’s projected contract value — between $125 million and $150 million — will certainly lean toward the latter if he can actually stay on the floor and continue his rise as he already has.

Johnson said he believes he has found a show with the ankle support he needs to avoid the issues he faced last season.

That could be bad news for the rest of the league and a price the Hawks would be happy to pay.