Tennessee vs. Arkansas Football Prediction: What the Analysis Says

SEC football begins this weekend as No. 4 Tennessee comes off its opening week and looks to improve to 2-0 in conference play against Arkansas in Week 6 of college football.

Tennessee is No. 1 nationally in total defensive production, allowing just 176 yards per game and just 3.13 yards per play, and is coming off a strong win at Oklahoma in another away SEC matchup two weeks ago.

Arkansas is 12 points away from being undefeated if not for a loss on the road to Oklahoma State and last week’s loss to Texas A&M in the Southwest Classic.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

As expected, the models are strongly on the side of the volunteers in this street duel.

Tennessee is expected to win the game in 82.2 percent of the computer’s latest simulations.

This leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in 17.8 percent of simulations.

According to the model’s latest projection, Tennessee is expected to be 14 points better than Arkansas with both teams’ current makeup on the same field.

If so, that would be enough for the Vols to cover the spread.

That’s because Tennessee is the 13.5-point favorite against Arkansas, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 59.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win are -525 for Tennessee and +400 for Arkansas.

Most bettors are expecting the Volunteers to win the game easily, as shown by the latest spread consensus recommendations.

Tennessee is receiving 58 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 42 percent of bets assume Arkansas will keep the game within 2 touchdowns.

Tennessee is third among SEC teams with a 78.2 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.4 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Arkansas a 61.8 percent chance of becoming bowl eligible and a win projection of 5.9 games.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including past results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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