Prediction markets see record $1 billion in bets for the 2024 election

TLDR:

• Prediction markets show over $1 billion in bets on the Trump-Harris presidential race
• Harris is narrowly ahead of Trump overall, but is favored in key swing states
• Wisconsin is emerging as a key battleground state with conflicting survey and forecast market data
• Despite some bullish indicators, Bitcoin’s short-term prospects appear bearish
• Chinese game Black Myth: Wukong is a success, but prediction markets doubt it will be named Game of the Year

The 2024 US presidential election is heating up, and prediction markets are offering a unique perspective on the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Over $1 billion in bets have been placed on Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform, underscoring the growing interest in using these markets to predict political outcomes.

According to the latest data, Harris has a narrow one-point lead over Trump in total betting. However, the picture becomes more complex when individual swing states are examined.

Harris appears to have the advantage in four of the six key battleground states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, which have traditionally leaned Democratic in recent elections, with the exception of 2016.

Wisconsin has emerged as a particularly fascinating state to watch. Traditional polls, such as a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, show a tight race with Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.

In contrast, Polymarket traders give Harris a greater 56% chance of winning the state. This discrepancy highlights the ongoing debate about the relative accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional polling methods, particularly in states like Wisconsin where polls have often been unreliable.

The surge in prediction market activity extends beyond politics to the world of cryptocurrencies.

Despite recent positive indicators for Bitcoin, including interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and liquidity injections by China, prediction market users remain cautious about the near-term outlook.

Polymarket data shows just a 41 percent chance of Bitcoin trading above $65,000 by Oct. 4, despite an increase in trading in $75,000 call options, which is typically seen as a bullish sign .

This pessimistic sentiment in the prediction markets contrasts with the optimistic outlook of some analysts based on traditional market indicators. The divergence could indicate that traders are factoring in concerns that Bitcoin may be overbought following its recent price rise.

As the election approaches and market conditions continue to evolve, prediction markets are likely to remain a closely watched indicator of possible outcomes.

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